PM Tony Blair will be `at the mercy' of Labour left

British Prime Minister Tony Blair speaks after being elected Member of Parliament for Sedgefield yesterday at Newton Aycliffe, England, whilst an unidentified candidate shows her protest by wearing a hat with the word ``Bliar.'' Blair is on course for an historic third term in Downing Street, but with a sharply reduced majority. PHOTO: AP

British Prime Minister Tony Blair will have to overcome a newly influential leftwing in the Commons as he battles to legislate for identity cards, welfare reform and tightening of asylum laws, as he returned to power yesterday with a reduced majority.

In the new politics of a third term, a weakened Blair could find himself heavily reliant on disaffected backbenchers and members of the leftwing Campaign Group remaining loyal, or else see legislation cut down by an alliance of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and his own rebels.

Even with a majority of around 80 it takes only 40 Labour members of parliament (MPs) to rebel -- ?commonplace in the second parliament -- for the legislation to be thrown out.

If the prime minister had had a smaller majority in the last parliament, according to the academic Philip Cowley, he would not have been able to push through university top-up fees or foundation hospitals.

A fear of being held hostage by the Labour left was one of the factors that prompted Blair to have lengthy discussions about cooperation with the Liberal Democrats ahead of the 1997 elections.

In the new parliament that option is not available.

The threat of defeats in the Commons, according to one former minister, will also reduce the self-confidence of the government as it faces tough decisions on issues such as nuclear power and the future of local government finance.

"A smaller majority will destabilize us," a former Cabinet minister said.

Leading leftwingers warned yesterday that they will not just oppose controversial New Labour policies, but also demand a new style of government. Some will also demand a rapid change of leader. Lynne Jones, Labour candidate in Birmingham Selly Oak, said: "There'll be a move to try to replace Tony Blair as soon as possible. No one wants him driven out, but people are not prepared to have policies handed down the way they have been."

Efforts to influence the shape of the Queen's speech will begin as soon as MPs return to Westminster.

"No more privatization in the public services," said the former chairman of the Campaign Group, Alan Simpson. "We would push to bring troops back from Iraq when the UN mandate expires at the end of this year. There'll be big opposition to any move to update Trident. And ID cards will divide people very, very substantially."

But a different style of government will be the first target.

"If there's a manageable majority, it offers the chance of much more serious attention to democratic accountability," Simpson said.

Campaign Group MPs also claim their support will be bolstered by members of the new intake. In reality much will turn on what restraint, if any, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown chooses to impose on Blair.

However, with the greater power of rebellion will also come greater responsibility. The rebels will choose their fights selectively and sensible ministers will liaise carefully to ensure they do not press ahead with unremittingly New Labour proposals, if there is no chance of them reaching the statute book.