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Tony Blair's Labour looking good based on new poll results

A nerve-steadying six-point lead for Tony Blair in yesterday's Guardian/ICM opinion poll confirms the trend in several recent polls showing the governing Labour party ending the first phase of the British general election campaign in a slightly stronger position.

The survey puts Labour support up from 37 percent in the last Guardian/ICM poll nine days ago to 39 percent now, with a one-point fall in Conservative support.

There has been an average 3 percent swing away from the governing party at British general elections since 1950. The Conservatives' 33 percent share of the vote in this poll matches their performance in the 2001 general election, and on these figures the swing from Labour to Conservative would only reach 1.5 percent -- and would still deliver a majority of 120 plus.

Turnout data also shows that Labour's vote has grown firmer in the past week, with 59 percent of its supporters saying they are certain to vote compared with 52 percent at the beginning of the campaign.

That does not yet match the determination of Conservative voters, 65 percent of whom say they are certain to make it to the polls, but it is not far off the equivalent 2001 figure which produced a massive victory for Blair.

The Guardian/ICM policy battleground index, which asks voters to rank the importance of issues, shows that health remains the strong frontrunner, followed by law and order, education, tax and public services and the economy.

In these areas Labour appears to have won the opening rounds of the battles over spending plans by extending its lead over the Conservatives on tax and public services from three to 10 points in the past week.

Labour also retains strong leads on education, health and the economy generally. The only "first order" issue on which the Tories have the advantage is law and order, which has moved up in importance in voters' minds to second place this week.

If Howard was hoping that asylum and immigration would give him the kind of momentum he needs, the policy battleground index suggests he will be disappointed. The proportion of voters naming immigration as the most important issue has slipped from 12 percent to 8 percent.

The Tory lead has actually shrunk on this issue in the past week, from 13 points to 10. At one point early in the week it had fallen to six points.

It is early days, but asylum and immigration may prove to be the equivalent of then Tory leader William Hague's 2001 "Save the Pound" campaign, which resonated with an ever narrower section of the electorate, while Labour talked about education, health and the economy.

The first week has seen Howard slightly improve his standing with the voters, but it is the Liberal Democrats' Charles Kennedy, up three points to 21 percent, who has benefited the most from the media exposure of the campaign.
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