A daunting task awaits the successor of John Paul II, who will be the 265th pope in the 2,000 year history of the Roman Catholic Church.
A famous Italian saying about conclaves holds that "he who goes in as pope comes out a cardinal." The idea behind the saying is that someone who is widely tipped as a candidate in fact loses his chances of being elected. In reality, of the past five papal elections, Vatican experts note, only one -- Karol Wojtyla in 1978 -- was a clear surprise, if only because most had assumed the next pope would be an Italian.
One way of predicting whom the next pope might be involves drawing up a portrait of an ideal candidate, and then match names to go with it. John Allen, a Rome-based correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter, argues that Pope John Paul II leaves behind "a more united world and a more divided church. John Paul II directed much of his energies towards the outside world rather than on the inner workings of the Church."
At the same time, demands for "collegiality" and "subsidiarity," two terms used to describe the need for lower-ranking clergy to be given a greater say in church government, are increasingly being voiced. Although many believe the papacy should be returned to an Italian, Allen argues that the church needs a man capable of arousing interest in all corners of the world, particularly where converts are needed.
"They won't elect an Italian because that would mean withdrawing to put the house in order at a time when there is a need for expansion," Giacomo Galeazzi, a Vatican expert in Rome argues.
Both Allen and Galeazzi believe the next pope could easily be a foreigner, even a non-European. American candidates won't be in contention, Allen says, because that would give rise to suspicion of being influenced by the US.
Galeazzi notes that after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, there is even more need for a pope that comes from a developing country. He cites Asia, where political instability could favor the Church in the future, and Latin America, where the Church has been doing particularly well.
Much has been written about the possibility that the next pope could be black, such as Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria. But as one Vatican expert in Rome once noted: "If even such a modern country as the United States has not had a black President yet, how can you expect a deeply conservative body like the Church to elect a black pope?"
Several experts also dispute the view that the next pope will be as conservative as John Paul II.
"History teaches us that cardinals appointed by conservative popes don't necessarily elect a conservative," says Allen.
Father Richard McBrien, a professor of Theology at the University of Notre Dame, Indiana, argues that "History shows that the longer a pope remains in office, the less likely it is that he will be followed by a photo-copy of himself."
Like many Vatican experts, McBrien believes that after the lengthy papacy of Karol Wojtyla, cardinals will be looking for "a transitional pope."
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