"The decline is a historical trend that is irreversible," Buettner said.
It also projects that HIV will slow its spread by 2010 and a cure for HIV/AIDS will eventually be found, eliminating that downward pull on the population. In a mildly understated conclusion, it briefly contemplates what could happen if some new, more virulent disease, arises.
"These projections also risk being up-ended by national crises, such as outbreaks of civil strife or new epidemics or environmental emergencies, which could produce short-run catastrophic mortality or large, unpredictable migrant movements," the report says.
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