China's population, now the world's largest at 1.3 billion, will peak at just under 1.5 billion in about 30 years, the country's head of population planning was quoted yesterday as saying.
"The nation's population will still increase by about 10 million annually and reach a peak of 1.46 billion in the mid-2030s," the state-run newspaper Shanghai Daily quoted Zhang Weiqing (張維慶) as saying.
The expanding working-age population will put massive pressure on the economy to create jobs, while the aging population is straining government resources such as healthcare, Zhang was quoted as saying.
Both the working and aged populations are expected to peak in about 20 years, he said, adding that "the peaks are the toughest challenges for China's sustainable development."
China imposed a policy of allowing one child per family about 30 years ago, following a post-World War II baby boom. Chinese experts say it has reduced overall population growth by about 300 million births over the past decade.
People aged 60 and over now make up 11 percent of the total population, and officials say the proportion is set to surge.
The government recently began allowing more families to have second children in the hope of easing the future burden of fewer workers supporting a growing number of retirees.
The Shanghai Daily said Zhang spoke at an international symposium on population issues over the weekend in Shanghai.
Staff at the Population Commission's press office said a copy of the text wasn't immediately available.
The newspaper said Shanghai will likely add up to 4 million to its current population of 20 million by around 2020. Though that will strain resources, the city could handle a population of up to 30 million, it cited researchers at Shanghai's Fudan University as saying.
Experts attending the population conference expressed concern over China's rising disparity between births of boys and girls.
Birth limits coupled with a traditional preference for male heirs has led families to use modern technology such as sonogram machines to determine the gender of babies before they are born.
Unwanted girls are frequently aborted.
Nationwide, 117 boys are born for every 100 girls. The ratio in some rural areas is as high as 130 boys to 100 girls.
Worldwide, fewer than 110 boys are born to every 100 girls.
If these trends continue, officials say China could have as many as 40 million men who can't find spouses by 2020.
India currently has the world's second largest population with just over 1 billion people, but is expected to overtake China by 2050, when India will have over 1.6 billion people.
The US is expected to have about 420 million people by that year, from about 300 million now.
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