The US military is in the final stages of readying its national ballistic missile defense system, with officials predicting it will be activated before year's end. But several questions remain, including how well the experimental missile interceptors work.
The Pentagon maintains that any defense against intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) is better than none. Critics contend the Bush administration is vastly overselling an expensive, unproven defense system.
There has been an expectation that the administration will shortly declare that the missile defense system is operational and on alert. Military officials said they know of no specific plans for such an announcement.
Such an announcement would have political and strategic value for the administration.
To those who believe it will work, activating the system would fulfill a pledge by President George W. Bush to have an operational missile defense system by the end of this year. Such an announcement would also have greater value if it came before the Nov. 2 elections.
Bush has promoted the system while campaigning for re-election.
"We want to continue to perfect this system, so we say to those tyrants who believe they can blackmail America and the free world: you fire; we're going to shoot it down," he said at Ridley Park, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 17.
Military officials stressed that the initial system will be modest and limited in capability, but will improve over time.
Critics of the system, such as Philip Coyle, the Pentagon's former chief of testing, say Bush is wrong.
"Of course we don't have any capability to do that," he said. "For the president to sort of dare them [to fire missiles] is really misleading and even reckless."
Democratic presidential nominee Senator John Kerry has said that, if elected, he would proceed more slowly with the missile defense system and take time for additional testing.
Estimates vary widely on how much the program will cost over its lifetime, with some reaching US$100 billion or more. This year and next, the Missile Defense Agency expects to spend a total of more than $US10 billion.
Many of the doubts about the system, initially designed to protect the US from an ICBM attack from North Korea and other possible threats in the western Pacific, arise from problems during high-profile tests.
In testing, which critics deride as highly scripted, the interceptors have gone five-for-eight when launched at target missiles.
Two tests scheduled for this year have been delayed due to recently discovered technical problems. The next test is now set for late next month or early December, so it is unclear if it will take place before interceptors in Alaska go on alert. The test after that will take place early next year.
The military has five interceptors in underground silos at Fort Greely in central Alaska, with plans to add one more by this month, and an additional 10 by the end of next year.
A Navy destroyer has begun patrolling the Sea of Japan with a newly upgraded AEGIS radar capable of tracking any North Korean missile launches and feeding information into the missile defense network.
But some of these various pieces of the system are not yet linked to one another, Lehner said. He and other officials could not provide a specific time when the system will be ready in the coming months.
RSS