A new superstrain of the flu virus capable of triggering a global pandemic could emerge from east Asia, health officials have warned.
Scientists working for the World Health Organization (WHO) fear that the arrival of the flu season in Asian countries could see the human flu virus merge with a lethal strain of bird flu that is already in circulation, producing a more deadly flu virus that could rapidly infect humans, leading to a global outbreak.
Recent cases of flu in Thailand have been reported in areas already struggling to control the spread of bird flu, a virus that mostly affects poultry, but has claimed the lives of at least four people in recent months.
Health officials warn that people living in regions where the viruses are circulating could catch both at once, raising the prospect of a new and highly virulent form of human flu emerging.
"The reality is that if these two viruses meet, they will exchange genetic information and a new virus could emerge that's as pathogenic as the bird flu virus, but as infectious as human flu," said Klaus Stohr, head of the WHO's influenza program.
"It's a real scenario for the emergence of a pandemic," he said.
Bird flu affected 10 Asian countries last year, killing at least 18 people and tens of millions of birds. It returned this year with outbreaks in Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia. To prevent people becoming infected with both bird flu and human flu, the WHO recommends that those at greatest risk, such as poultry farmers, be vaccinated against human flu or take antiviral drugs.
But with more than 95 percent of the world's doses of flu vaccine sold to developed countries, stocks in poorer regions are so low that many countries have little, if any, to give out.
The Thai health ministry last week said it would try to vaccinate poultry workers in affected areas, but with only 100,000 donated doses of vaccine, local officials admit they do not have enough to prevent both viruses spreading.
Writing in New Scientist magazine, Prasert Thongcharoen of Mahidol University in Bangkok, a member of the WHO's expert committee on viral diseases, said: "We do not have sufficient vaccine to prevent co-circulation."
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