President Hu Jintao's (胡錦濤) new status as commander of China's military should strengthen efforts to fight corruption and control a surging economy, forcing resistant lower-level officials to recognize Hu as their undisputed leader, analysts said yesterday.
Former president Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) decision to hand over his last post as military chief on Sunday, almost two years after Hu succeeded him as Communist Party leader, ended tensions over control that had let local officials resist pressure to cut spending and carry out painful reforms, the analysts said.
"This is a very significant event," said Kenneth Lieberthal, a China specialist at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
"Hu really has the future in his hands at this moment," he said.
The consolidation of China's top party and military posts in Hu's control is expected to give him and Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) a freer hand to act as they wrestle with huge challenges ranging from rural poverty to fighting rampant corruption that is undermining public confidence in the leadership.
It also could help a government austerity campaign aimed at cooling off an economy that is growing by more than 9 percent a year, threatening to ignite politically dangerous inflation and weaken the fragile banking industry.
Despite repeated orders from Beijing, local officials have balked at orders to cancel major construction and other big spending projects -- austerity moves that could cost local jobs and reduce opportunities to line their pockets. Hu and Wen reportedly have been forced to visit Shanghai and other areas to compel obedience in person.
"As long as there was the impression that there was political infighting at the top, there was a reason for local officials who didn't like the changes to hold out in hopes of getting a different option," Lieberthal said.
But now, he said, "at lower levels it will be seen that the wave of the future is the Hu Jintao leadership, and that should tighten discipline."
Despite his new military status, Hu,61, is the weakest leader of the communist era, surrounded by potential rivals in a consensus-based party leadership. He shares its ruling nine-member Standing Committee with at least five Jiang allies.
But the end of uncertainty over the military post could help the methodical, diplomatic Hu to solidify his political alliances and push out Jiang's proteges, said Joseph Cheng (鄭宇碩), a political scientist at the City University of Hong Kong.
"In the next party congress," a meeting due in 2007 to decide the party's political plans and leadership, "there could be a major shake-up," Cheng said.
Hu's new authority also should help anti-graft efforts by discouraging lower-level officials from trying to protect corrupt colleagues and others, he said.
"There will be less resistance," Cheng said.
Several times, Hu has been rumored to be preparing major political reform speeches, only to deliver bland restatements of party policy -- a suggestion that he didn't feel his position was strong enough to launch any bold initiatives.
Hu has talked vaguely about promoting "socialist democracy," but that isn't expected to include opposition politics or free elections.
"Now people expect Hu Jintao to act," Cheng said.
"If he cannot come up with a political reform program, there will be disappointment," Cheng said.
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