Many of the world's largest industrialized nations will lose population between now and 2050 as low birth rates, struggling economies and curbs on immigration stifle growth, says the author of a world population report.
The annual study by the private Population Reference Bureau found that, while the world's population will increase nearly 50 percent by mid-century, Japan will lose 20 percent of its population in the next 45 years, while Russia, Germany and Italy will also see declines.
The US is the biggest exception among developed countries, with its population forecast to rise by 43 percent from 293 million now to 420 million at mid-century.
Still, most of the world's population growth will come in developing nations, even though these less developed countries generally have much higher rates of HIV and AIDS infections and infant mortality.
China, currently the world's most populous nation at 1.3 billion, would see an overall 10 percent increase between now and 2050 to over 1.4 billion in 2050, but its peak population is anticipated to be reached by 2025 with declines thereafter.
By 2050, India is expected to overtake China, rising almost 50 percent from under 1.1 billion now to 1.6 billion at mid-century. Nigeria's population is expected to nearly triple in size to 307 million, while Bangladesh would double to 280 million.
The trends could change further depending on how successful doctors are in treating AIDS infections and reducing infant mortality rates and, how prevalent contraceptive use and family planning become in developing nations.
"This only tends to accentuate the opposite poles of population growth you have in industrialized and developing countries," said Carl Haub, author of the report by the bureau.
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