The US reacted with indifference after Pakistan conducted its second ballistic missile test in less than a week last Friday, but experts see new evidence of an ominous trend.
An inexorable arms race in South Asia is proceeding while President George W. Bush -- focused on re-election, Iraq and the war on terrorism -- is unable or unwilling to grapple with it in a significant or effective way, they say.
"I think the US is distracted by other issues ... They have crisis overload," said Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution, author of books on Pakistan and India.
Lee Feinstein, a former Clinton administration official, said Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, a key ally in Bush's war on terrorism, probably believes correctly that he can test-fire missiles without risking US pressure.
"In general the administration has been unsuccessful or unwilling to apply pressure on Pakistan with respect to its nuclear program and the missile test ... is another indication of our lack of influence or unwillingness to use it," said Feinstein, now with the Council on Foreign Relations.
But he warned that the last few times India-Pakistan tensions erupted over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, "the risks increased when there has been inattention by the Americans."
On May 29, Pakistan test fired a Ghauri missile capable of carrying nuclear and other warheads up to 1,500 km. Six days later, the same missile was tested again.
The US had nothing official to say and unofficially, officials were nonchalant.
The test was "nothing particular ... There have been a whole series of tests by Pakistan and India ... These things go off every three or four months," one official told reporters.
Many experts believe if a nuclear weapon is fired in anger, it will result from an India-Pakistan conflict. The two countries stunned the world when they tested nuclear weapons in 1998.
They fought three wars after independence from the UK in 1947 and nearly did again in 2002 when New Delhi blamed Pakistan-based militants for a bloody attack on its parliament.
New details about Pakistan's capabilities came to light after Abdul Qadeer Khan, the country's nuclear progenitor, was arrested for running a nuclear black market that sold to Iran, Libya and North Korea. Musharraf later pardoned Khan.
Western diplomats have said Khan could not have acted independently and appeared to be a scapegoat for the army, which Musharraf heads.
Pakistan's recent missile tests came just after a new Indian government took office and as the two countries prepare for talks this month on reducing the risks from their nuclear rivalry, part of a peace process relaunched last year.
Musharraf suggested the tests had more to do with his domestic critics than sending a pre-talks message to India.
Cohen said Pakistan's program is driven by "technological logic" with scientists largely dictating the testing schedule. But the tests are also a signal that "my country cannot be treated lightly," Cohen said.
Ahead of the talks, the tests "could be Pakistan's way of emphasizing they are ahead in the arms race in South Asia and the Indians are behind," he added.
Feinstein said Musharraf was showing hard-liners at home he will not be outflanked on security and was also trying to create "negotiating space" ahead of the talks.
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