Once his greatest political asset, US President George W. Bush's leadership of the war against terror is becoming a potential liability.
False prewar claims about former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein's arsenal, mounting US casualties and now the sickening images of prisoner abuse in Iraq threaten to turn Americans against the war -- and against the self-professed "war president."
If the bad news continues through November presidential elections and Democratic rival John Kerry convinces voters he's a safe alternative -- two big ifs -- Bush may become an ex-war president, experts say.
With newspapers and television screens filled with horrific pictures of American soldiers abusing Iraqi prisoners, Bush's approval rating is at the lowest of his presidency. Most voters are disappointed with the way things are going in the country. And, for the first time, Americans are divided on whether Bush or Kerry would better handle Iraq.
All bad signs for the commander in chief.
At the same time, a USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll shows Bush and Kerry tied in the presidential race -- an indication that, despite their doubts, key voters have not decided to deny Bush re-election. The president still holds a double-digit lead over Kerry on the question of who would deal best with terrorism.
Why isn't Bush in more trouble? Democratic and Republican strategists offer several explanations:
-- Kerry is an uneven candidate who has failed to take advantage of Bush's slump. What little voters know about the Democrat is largely negative, thanks to a multimillion-dollar White House ad campaign.
-- Dangerous times make voters wary of change. Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran, has just begun to introduce himself to Americans and flesh out his anti-terrorism policies.
-- The country is divided, with about 45 percent strongly behind Bush and 45 percent firmly supporting Kerry. Undecided voters are likely to withhold judgment until late in the campaign, when they know more about Kerry and the state of the nation.
"They need to soak everything in over time. What they're saying is, `We have doubts about the president, but we also have doubts about John Kerry,'" said Democratic pollster Doug Schoen.
Bush's ratings suffer with each flare-up in Iraq: The murder and mutilation of four US mercenaries whose grisly death evoked memories of the failed 1993 US mission in Somalia; congressional hearings into pre-Sept. 11 intelligence failures and whether the president failed to heed the warnings; and photos of flagged-draped coffins from Iraq.
But nothing has changed the basic structure of the Bush-Kerry race: It's close.
"Imagine the amount of information it would take for Republicans to change their minds about Bush," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "Conversely, even if we capture Osama bin Laden tomorrow, Bush's popularity would get a pop, sure, but would Democrats change their mind about him?"
"It's hard to imagine the race being restructured when you have a partisan divide of this intensity," he said.
While the USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll had Bush's approval rating at 46 percent, "the minute this horrible story is over it will drift back to 52 percent," McInturff argued. If Iraq subsides as an issue, the public might start noticing that new jobs are being created in America, he said.
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