In the aftermath of Donald Rumsfeld's appearances on Capitol Hill on Friday, three critical forces will likely determine whether the defense secretary keeps his job: The White House, Republican lawmakers and Rumsfeld himself.
The White House is the most important, and there were signs on Friday that it is not as united as it may appear. Although Scott McClellan, the White House press secretary, said that President Bush still supports his defense secretary, a person close to Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, said that Rice would not be unhappy if Rumsfeld resigned.
PHOTO: REUTERS
"He appears to have become a liability for the president, and has complicated the mission in Iraq," the person said, adding that Rice, like the president, is leaving options open: "They're waiting to see what the system will bear, and if the story dies down after today, Rumsfeld survives."
PHOTO: AP
Other people who know the president said that Bush, who puts an enormous premium on loyalty, would be reluctant to fire Rumsfeld, and might even have trouble accepting his resignation. Although Bush has dismissed subordinates like former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, he has done so only after months, if not years, of dissatisfaction with their service.
Nonetheless, the reaction from the White House to Rumsfeld's testimony on Friday before the Senate and House Armed Services Committee was noticeably muted.
McClellan, traveling with Bush on a campaign bus trip through Iowa and Wisconsin, said that Bush had not watched Rumsfeld's performance on the flat-screen television aboard the presidential bus, but that he been updated "a few times" by his staff.
"He's heard he's done a good job and appreciates Secretary Rumsfeld keeping Congress informed about the steps being taken to keep something like this from happening again and holding those responsible accountable," McClellan said.
On Capitol Hill, Rumsfeld's testimony met with a mixed reaction, as Democrats continued to call for his resignation while his own party supported him. Rumsfeld managed to hang on for now to the Republicans on the Senate Armed Services Committee, the group that will have the biggest influence on his future.
"I thought he did a good job saying `I'm sorry,'" Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, of South Carolina said afterward. "I'm still unclear about who knew what when, and that's important, in terms of how much accountability to assess to someone."
Graham, a member of the Armed Services Committee, added that removing a defense secretary in the middle of a war "may send the wrong signal to our enemy and empower them," and implored Democrats calling for Rumsfeld's resignation to slow down.
But Graham, in comments echoed by his colleagues, also made clear that Rumsfeld's job was not assured, particularly after videos and more pictures detailing the American abuse of the Iraqi prisoners become public.
"I was trying to tell the secretary, it's going to get worse before it gets better -- do you think you can handle this? And he said he thought he could. And I would just ask people who are calling for his resignation, give him a chance."
Perhaps the single greatest factor in whether Rumsfeld remains in his job is Rumsfeld himself. In the direct way that became his trademark in the Pentagon podium during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Rumsfeld described to the senators his own calculations as he mulled over his future.
"Needless to say, if I felt I could not be effective, I'd resign in a minute," Rumsfeld told Graham at one point in the hearing.
Graham had asked Rumsfeld a pivotal question: Could the greatly diminished prosecutor of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan still have the power to carry out his duties? Did he have the ability, in Graham's words, to come to Capitol Hill and carry the message and carry the water for the Department of Defense?
"Well, it's a fair question," Rumsfeld replied. "Certainly since this firestorm has been raging it's a question that I've given a lot of thought to. The key question for me is the one you posed, and that is whether or not I can be effective."
Rumsfeld, a man who has understood and used power like few others in Washington, took the matter even further. In response to a question from Democratic Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, he appeared to suggest there might be some advantage to his resigning.
Bayh asked Rumsfeld if his resignation might serve to demonstrate how seriously the US takes the prison abuse scandal, and therefore, might his stepping down help undo some of the damage to the nation's reputation around the world.
Rumsfeld, as is his style, was blunt.
"That's possible," the defense secretary replied.
A former member of the current Bush administration put it this way on Friday: "Nobody is going to ask Rumsfeld to resign. He has to come to the conclusion himself."
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