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Bush strategists say campaign going as expected

US President George W. Bush's campaign strategists say they now expect to trail or do no better than run even with Senator John Kerry through the summer, despite their aggressive new effort to counter months of Democratic attacks.

Some Republicans said the campaign's assessment was intended in part to lower expectations and convince jittery supporters that the election is unfolding just as the White House has anticipated. But they said it also reflected a belief that the president had his work cut out for him in getting back on the offensive after a period in which events outside Bush's control and concerted Democratic criticism had undermined his political strength.

After tomorrow's primaries in 10 states, the White House plans to step up a counterassault that began last Monday when Bush delivered his first speech of the general election campaign, officials said.

Bush will make a foray into the heart of the Democratic base, visiting California on Wednesday and Thursday to collect more money toward his goal of raising US$175 million or more to last him through the summer. He will start putting his war chest to work in earnest on Thursday when he begins running television advertising.

Strategists with ties to the Bush campaign said the White House was working closely with the Republican leadership in Congress to begin drawing sharp distinctions between the parties through votes and debates on a variety of issues, especially tax cuts. The campaign is increasingly deploying surrogates around the country, from senators to county chairmen, to make its case.

"As this becomes a two-man race, we need to define the stakes," said Terry Holt, the Bush campaign's spokesman.

Bush himself, the strategists said, will refine his stump speech so that it is less about his accomplishments so far than about the opportunities he has created for the future and the stark choices facing the voters in November. Chief among them, Republicans said, would be whether the country wants to entrust its security to a Democratic challenger that the White House is busily portraying as too liberal and too lacking in principle to be trusted with defending the country against terrorism.

"The real challenge, and the concern -- not worry -- is that they need to be able to implement a strategy, a series of tactics, that will enable the president to define the election on terms favorable to him," said one Republican who works closely with the White House.

"Uniquely for a successful incumbent, he has not been able to do that so far," said the Republican, who demanded anonymity in part because the White House discourages its allies from speaking openly to reporters but also because he said he wanted his role to remain behind the scenes.

"The next phase of the campaign, from early March to mid- or late April, is about whether the election is going to be fought on safety, security, America's place in the world and keeping the economy growing -- the issues that are good for the president," the Republican said. "If it's about credibility, weapons of mass destruction, intelligence failures and job creation, Bush will lose."
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