Japanese voters have a tough decision to make on Sunday: stick with a long-ruling party and its fractious mix of reformists and foot-draggers, or opt for an untested opposition promising to become an agent of real change.
Polls suggest most will take the low-risk option, handing popular Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's camp a comfortable win in the first general election since he took office in 2001.
They may also let his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), now governing in a coalition, keep its simple majority.
If so, Koizumi will be able to claim a fresh mandate for his reform agenda, helping him to press ahead with cuts in public spending, privatization of money-guzzling government corporations and cures for the nation's sickly banks.
"If the results are as expected, there will be a bit better progress on reform, but no `great leap forward,'" said Yasunori Sone, a political science professor at Keio University in Tokyo.
Analysts caution, however, that an LDP majority is not a done deal.
"The LDP performance may be somewhat worse than the surveys suggest," said Jun Iio, a professor of government at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. "The next three days are the crucial battle."
The Lower House election pits the wavy-haired, telegenic Koizumi's LDP and its two partners mainly against the Democratic Party, led by Naoto Kan, a former grass-roots activist.
The LDP has ruled for most of the past half century by catering to core supporters such as farmers, small businesses and construction firms, and many of its candidates oppose reform.
Now, with its traditional support base eroding and the number of unaffiliated "floating voters" growing, the LDP is counting on Koizumi's popularity to translate into a decisive win.
Founded in 1996 and led by the less charismatic Kan, the Democrats hope their policy manifesto -- including pledges to loosen bureaucrats' grip on policy and give local governments more say -- will persuade voters they can achieve real change.
Newly merged with a smaller pro-reform group, the Democrats look set to boost their presence in the 480-member chamber from 137 seats, moving Japan closer to a true two-party system.
Analysts say the chances of the Democrats hitting their target of 200 and toppling the LDP are nearly non-existent since voters would be reluctant to hand power to a novice party.
"No one wants a shock treatment and no one is offering it. So you go with the trusted hand," said Jesper Koll, chief economist at Merrill Lynch in Tokyo.
Koizumi has a mixed record on reform, with some criticizing him for going too fast and others saying he's been too timid.
Attention is also on whether the LDP wins a majority on its own, and by what margin it succeeds or fails. The ruling coalition previously had 287 seats, of which 247 were LDP.
Because the LDP lacks a majority in the Upper House, Koizumi has said he plans to keep his alliance with the Buddhist-backed New Komeito Party -- whose support for LDP candidates is critical in the poll -- and the tiny New Conservatives.
Winning a simple majority for the LDP, however, would strengthen Koizumi's hand against anti-reformers in his party.
"The only risk is if he comes in below the majority the LDP had before the election," Koll said. "That's the real issue."
Whether voter turnout rises much above the 62 percent seen in 2000, the second lowest on record, will be a key factor. A higher turnout means more of the "floating voters" who shun party ties and tend to favor the opposition will be casting ballots.
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