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Koizumi cruising to re-election

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi appeared confident of victory on the eve of an election for ruling party chief, as lawmakers opposed to his reforms were jumping on the popular leader's bandwagon ahead of today's vote.

Koizumi is expected to defeat three rivals in the election for president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), allowing him to stay on as premier and lead the long-ruling conservatives into a general election many foresee in November.

Focus has already shifted to an expected Cabinet reshuffle and the fate of Economics and Financial Services Minister Heizo Takenaka, the architect of many of Koizumi's economic reforms but a target of harsh criticism from many LDP old-guard barons.

After the reshuffle, Koizumi is expected to call an extra session of parliament from Sept. 26 in which he aims to extend a counter-terrorism law allowing Tokyo to give rear-guard support to US operations in Afghanistan, a vital step ahead of close ally President George W. Bush's Oct. 17 visit to Japan.

LDP heavyweights have suggested that Koizumi, in power since April 2001, was likely to dissolve parliament's powerful lower house around Oct. 10 and call a snap election on Nov. 9 or Nov. 16.

Yesterday, though, a confident-sounding Koizumi said only that many lawmakers were straining at the campaign bit.

"It's been more than three years so members of parliament feel that an election can be held anytime," he told reporters, referring to the time since the last general election in 2000.

No election need be held until the middle of next year but Koizumi is thought keen to take advantage of his popularity and signs of an emerging economic recovery and call the poll sooner.

Some LDP strategists want to hold the lower house poll in tandem with an upper house election which must be held in July, but the LDP's No. 2 coalition partner, New Komeito, wants to avoid that scenario because it would strain the party machine.

All three challengers to Koizumi want to abandon his commitment to reining in the public spending that has kept LDP supporters happy for decades but left Japan with a bulging debt, and many LDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members agree.

But with the general election looming, the media-savvy Koizumi's support rate among the broader public -- well over 50 percent -- will probably be decisive in the LDP poll.

Koizumi has already won the backing of several anti-reform heavyweights, prompting speculation that he had promised to compromise on policy and Cabinet appointments.

On Thursday, more than 100 lawmakers, many from rival factions in the multi-bloc LDP, attended a rally supporting him.

Victory in the LDP poll goes to the candidate who takes a majority of the 657 votes up for grabs -- those of the party's 357 lawmakers plus 300 from 47 local LDP chapters which are allotted based on ballots of rank-and-file LDP members.

If no candidate gets a majority, a runoff in which only lawmakers vote will be held the same day.

But surveys have shown Koizumi is expected to get around 60 percent of the rank-and-file vote and a majority of the lawmakers too, ensuring a first-round win.

Maneuvering by the main opposition Democratic Party could also affect the timing of the general election, although analysts said the poll was still likely to occur this year.

The Democrats, re-energized by a planned merger with a smaller rival, are likely to put up stiff resistance to the LDP in parliamentary debate to boost their public profile.

The opposition party could seek to focus debate on a planned dispatch of Japan's military to help rebuild Iraq, a step Koizumi has promised Bush he will take but which many voters oppose.
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