Tue, Sep 16, 2003 - Page 7 News List

Estonia could join EU, preliminary poll results show

AP , TALLINN, ESTONIA

Preliminary referendum results on Sunday showed Estonians approve of EU membership -- fulfilling what once seemed an unattainable dream for the small, historically vulnerable Baltic state.

The results showed a decisive 67 percent of voters backing membership, with 33 percent saying "no," Estonia's Central Election Commission reported. About two-thirds of ballots at the 652 polling stations had been counted.

More than 60 percent of 850,000 eligible voters cast ballots, though there was no minimum turnout requirement for the vote to be valid.

Eight of the 10 new EU invitees have approved their referendums, and Cyprus is leaving the decision to lawmakers. Estonia's Baltic neighbor Latvia will be the last to hold a referendum on Saturday. All are expected to become full members next May.

At times in recent months, Estonian opinion polls suggested lukewarm support for membership -- raising the possibility that Estonians could snub the powerful European bloc. The government and businesses, spooked by the prospect of missing out on seamless access to lucrative EU markets, pulled out the stops -- and campaign cash -- to ensure victory.

EU entry has been a No. 1 goal for every government since Estonia regained independence amid the 1991 Soviet collapse, with leaders insisting it would boost living standards for most and, in the case of the elderly, at least for their children and grandchildren.

Twelve years ago, it looked like it would take decades for Estonia to meet EU requirements. The economy was in free-fall -- with annual inflation topping 1,000 percent, and Russian troops, remnants of a 50-year Soviet occupation force, remained at hundreds of bases here.

But radical open-market reforms were implemented immediately after communism unraveled, and Estonia quickly gained the reputation as the most successful of the 15 former Soviet republics.

Growth exceeded 10 percent by 1997 and inflation is now under 5 percent.

Younger, better-off Estonians seemed more likely to back entry, pointing to greater opportunities to travel and work abroad. One tongue-in-cheek, pro-EU advertisement even offered the promise to women of "sexier men" from around Europe when borders with the EU come down.

Others seem swayed more by psychological factors, including that membership will mark this Nordic-oriented nation's return to mainstream Europe after so long on the humiliating fringes.

Both sides sometimes resorted to scare tactics to sway the 850,000 eligible voters, many of whom expressed confusion about what EU entry will mean.

Many pro-EU ads raised the specter that Estonia's erstwhile ruler Russia could re-exert its influence if the nation stayed out of mainstream Europe.

One refrain from EU backers was that "a no to the EU is a yes to Russia."

Opponents warned the EU will force Estonia to abandon its low-tariff, low-tax system that has helped it achieve years of impressive economic growth, at or above 5 percent.

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