Koizumi's fate proves tough to forecast

On the face of it, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi ought to be sitting pretty.

The economy is starting to pick up, US Treasury Secretary John Snow says his reforms are "visionary," most Japanese voters want him to stay, and rivals in his ruling party are in disarray.

For all that, Koizumi's fate in a Liberal Democratic Party leadership race later this month is proving tough to call.

"It's massively unpredictable," said Steven Reed, a political science professor at Chuo University in Tokyo.

"He's popular, but they may still decide to dump him."

Koizumi, who sprang to power in 2001 on a wave of support for his reform agenda, would seem the likely choice to lead the LDP into a general election that must be held by mid-2004. Many pundits expect the party to lose seats in that election.

Sixty-six of voters favor Koizumi as victor in the September 20 party election, according to a weekend survey by the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun daily released yesterday. The figure jumped to 85 percent when only LDP supporters were polled.

A similar survey by the Mainichi Shimbun showed that 77 percent of LDP backers preferred Koizumi.

His closest potential rival -- former foreign minister Masahiko Komura -- trailed at five percent while former transport minister Takao Fujii, a member of the LDP's biggest faction who declared his candidacy on Tuesday, languished with one percent.

Unfortunately for Koizumi, the outcome of the party poll is in the hands of a smaller, less predictable group -- the LDP's 1.4 million dues-paying members and 357 lawmakers, many of whom object to his potentially painful reforms.

Local members voted overwhelmingly for Koizumi in the April 2001 party race, but some wonder if they will again.

Koizumi's among the general public remains high by Japanese standards. The Yomiuri survey showed 57.7 percent of voters backed his cabinet, up 5.5 points from July.

His reform efforts have also found favor with Washington, traditionally no bad thing for a Japanese leader.

"I commended the prime minister for his forward-looking, visionary reform policy," Snow told reporters after meeting the prime minister in Tokyo on Monday.

But the maverick prime minister's policies have angered powerful LDP support groups such as doctors annoyed with medical care reforms, postal workers dismayed by his promise to privatize the postal services, and construction companies unhappy over cuts in public works spending.

The clout of such groups has faded in recent years, but dislike of Koizumi might mobilize their votes.

"This time Koizumi has made serious enemies among the organizations who pay the dues of people who get to vote," Reed said.

"We don't know if the organizations can move the votes, but it's a real possibility," he said.

Anti-reform leaders in the multi-bloc LDP have been unable to rally round a single candidate and appeared to be pinning their hopes on running several opponents in hopes of denying Koizumi a first-round majority in the party poll.

That would set the stage for a run-off vote in which only LDP lawmakers would vote.

Other candidates include the gentlemanly Komura and small faction leader Shizuka Kamei, an old-style politician who is a harsh critic of Koizumi's tight fiscal stance.

But with the factions in disarray, LDP members and lawmakers may ultimately decide to vote for Koizumi as the leader most likely to help win elections for parliament's lower and upper houses which must be held by next July.

"In the old days, prime ministers were decided by faction numbers, but now it's different," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, whose father had the dubious distinction of being the only incumbent LDP chief to lose that post in a party poll.