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Questions linger over Arroyo's election plan

Will Philippine President Gloria Arroyo contest the May elections next year for a fresh six-year term in office?

This question bedevils the country, with the deadline for candidates registering for the polls just four months away.

A teary-eyed Arroyo shocked the nation when she announced on New Year's eve last year that she would not run in the elections, citing excessive politicking and her wish to concentrate the rest of her term on strengthening the fragile economy and creating more jobs.

But political pundits believe the shrewd grandmother, catapulted to power in January 2001 by a military-led popular uprising, will change her mind.

A US-trained economist, Arroyo has told journalists not to raise her potential candidacy at press conferences, even threatening to walk out of a media event recently when confronted with the lingering question.

Her official spokesman Ignacio Bunye repeats the same line when pressed by reporters: his boss stands by her pledge not to run.

"But so many events have transpired over the last few months that may compel her to reconsider her decision and run in the elections," local political analyst Randy David said.

Among them, he said, was a recent survey showing that Arroyo was for the first time ahead of all other presidential contenders in popularity.

It also showed that the opposition, at this point, does not have a very strong candidate to give Arroyo a run for her money if she stands.

Independent researcher Social Weather Stations (SWS) said 20 percent of 900 voters interviewed nationwide in a July 5-21 survey chose Arroyo.

Reversing her sagging popularity, she pipped nearest rival Raul Roco, an estranged former ally, by one percentage point.

Aside from Roco, a lawyer, the other key aspirants in the presidential race are former police chief Panfilo Lacson, San Miguel brewery chairman Eduardo Cojuangco and opposition Senator Gregorio Honasan, who has been accused of orchestrating the alleged July 27 coup attempt against Arroyo's rule and has gone into hiding.

It is Arroyo's swift quelling of this failed rebellion, which the government charged was part of a plot by opposition figures to murder her and seize power, that could induce the president to contest the elections.

"I think the coup attempt, which she resolutely repelled, might give her the notion that the continuing stability of the country depends on her continuing as president," said David, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines.

"If she herself does not acquire that perception, she would not be lacking in advisers who will try to persuade her into this kind of thinking," he said.

Sources close to Arroyo say the failed mutiny by about 300 soldiers, which she quashed within 24 hours, may make her to join the fray.

"You can say that recent events have widened the president's options," one source at Malacanang palace said.

"The sad part of the July 27 event is that not one of the presidential contenders came out strongly to defend the constitution, which had been challenged," the source said. "This worries the president."

Not all are backing Arroyo's possible play for another term leading a country where poverty, corruption and poor security -- all problems that featured heavily on Arroyo's agenda when she came to power -- continue to threaten society.

Opposition Senator, Teresa Aquino Oreta, expressed dismay at the growing signs that Arroyo would defy her pledge and run for another term.

Arroyo's "fixation with politicking could mean goodbye to her reform promises that prompted her in the first place to announce her decision to withdraw from next year's race so she could concentrate on good governance."

Oreta said the promises "would all go down the drain because her political lieutenants are once more too preoccupied with 2004 politics."

Arroyo has however been urged to run for another term by senior Catholic church leader Cardinal Jaime Sin, and former president Fidel Ramos, both of whom are influential in the predominately Roman Catholic country, as well as in her Lakas party.

"I myself feel that she is the strongest candidate from our party and from the coalition for president," Ramos said.
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