Jolted by the swift collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, the hardline clerics who rule Iran have been cracking down on dissent at home and talking discreetly to US diplomats abroad in an effort to stave off American pressure.
With US troops and military bases now virtually surrounding Iran, the conservative leaders have broken an old taboo by talking to their arch-enemy in an attempt to buy some breathing room and pre-empt possible US military action.
Although the two countries have not had diplomatic relations since the US-backed Shah was overthrown in 1979, officials on both sides have acknowledged a series of contacts between Washington and Tehran in recent weeks.
PHOTO: AFP
The US secretary of state, Colin Powell, said over the weekend that a resumption of diplomatic relations was not on the table, but added that the governments were speaking "in light of the changed strategic situation".
The new "situation" has put Iran in a vice. In the past 18 months, the US military machine has toppled two regimes on Iran's borders, Afghanistan and Iraq, with relative ease.
As Washington turns its attention to Iran's nuclear program, the conservative establishment in Tehran is clearly rattled.
After the fall of Baghdad last month, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sounded frustrated that Iraqi troops had failed to put up more resistance against US forces, calling their surrender "an eternal disgrace".
One former member of the establishment, who has become its most prominent critic, dared to say in public what many reformists were saying privately. Ayatollah Hosein Ali Montazeri said the clerical leadership could face the same fate as Saddam if it continued its autocratic ways.
"On this solemn and dangerous occasion, I warn leaders and officials of the Islamic republic to learn from the sad experience of the Iraqi dictator and hear the cry of the Iranian people for justice and democracy," he said.
The hardliners, who have blocked attempts at reform by President Mohammad Khatami and his allies in parliament, have drawn a different lesson from the Iraq conflict. Citing the US threat, they are moving against their political opponents and restricting public debate.
Proposals from President Khatami to end the obstruction of parliament and halt political trials have been stalled and then vetoed.
In recent weeks the judiciary and security services have targeted independent journalists who turned to the internet after their newspapers were shut down, subjecting them to detention without trial and interrogation.
The hardliners have handpicked ultra-conservatives to serve in key positions in the judiciary and in Tehran's city government.
Last week, officials announced plans to restrict access to "unethical"Web sites. There are now fears that the authorities will move against the country's award-winning film industry following the detention of several film critics and screen writers.
Earlier this month, Ayatollah Khamenei's representative in the militant Revolutionary Guard put MPs on notice that their comments would be "monitored" to safeguard national security, a clear message aimed at intimidating reformists, who form a majority in parliament.
In the past, reformist MPs have threatened to resign if the hardliners in the Guardian Council and the judiciary continue to veto legislation and punish dissidents. But they now run the risk of being accused of imperilling national security and playing into the hands of the "enemy" next door in Iraq.
While piling pressure on their domestic critics, the most conservative elements in the leadership have been calling on Shiites in Iraq to resist the US-led occupation.
Ahmad Jannati, a leading cleric, told worshippers at Friday prayers this month: "Iraqis will eventually reach the conclusion that the only way to oust Americans is an intifada. The Iraqi people should remain united and follow their religious leaders to oust the enemy and lead their own country."
In the battle for the sympathies of Iraqis, Iran's most effective move has been the launch of an Arabic news channel, which is beamed over the border. Al-Alam, or the World, has won a large Iraqi audience with its portrayal of US and British troops as occupiers who are not to be trusted.
By promoting militant Shiite politics in Iraq, the hardliners hope to make life difficult for the Americans and force them to withdraw.
But the extent of Iran's influence in Iraq remains unclear.
Tehran has pinned its hopes on a group of Shiite exiles it has sponsored for the past 20 years, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, but not all Shiite clergy in Iraq favor an Iranian-style theocracy.
If Iraq moves eventually towards a pluralistic system, hardliners fear it could become a platform for the Iranian opposition and critical media banned inside Iran.
However, the most serious threat in a post-Saddam world may come from Iraq's dormant oil fields, which are already attracting the interest of foreign oil companies.
Republican US lawmakers on Friday criticized US President Joe Biden’s administration after sanctioned Chinese telecoms equipment giant Huawei unveiled a laptop this week powered by an Intel artificial intelligence (AI) chip. The US placed Huawei on a trade restriction list in 2019 for contravening Iran sanctions, part of a broader effort to hobble Beijing’s technological advances. Placement on the list means the company’s suppliers have to seek a special, difficult-to-obtain license before shipping to it. One such license, issued by then-US president Donald Trump’s administration, has allowed Intel to ship central processors to Huawei for use in laptops since 2020. China hardliners
A top Vietnamese property tycoon was on Thursday sentenced to death in one of the biggest corruption cases in history, with an estimated US$27 billion in damages. A panel of three hand-picked jurors and two judges rejected all defense arguments by Truong My Lan, chair of major developer Van Thinh Phat, who was found guilty of swindling cash from Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB) over a decade. “The defendant’s actions ... eroded people’s trust in the leadership of the [Communist] Party and state,” read the verdict at the trial in Ho Chi Minh City. After the five-week trial, 85 others were also sentenced on
Conjoined twins Lori and George Schappell, who pursued separate careers, interests and relationships during lives that defied medical expectations, died this month in Pennsylvania, funeral home officials said. They were 62. The twins, listed by Guinness World Records as the oldest living conjoined twins, died on April 7 at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, obituaries posted by Leibensperger Funeral Homes of Hamburg said. The cause of death was not detailed. “When we were born, the doctors didn’t think we’d make 30, but we proved them wrong,” Lori said in an interview when they turned 50, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. The
RAMPAGE: A Palestinian man was left dead after dozens of Israeli settlers searching for a missing 14-year-old boy stormed a village in the Israeli-occupied West Bank US President Joe Biden on Friday said he expected Iran to attack Israel “sooner, rather than later” and warned Tehran not to proceed. Asked by reporters about his message to Iran, Biden simply said: “Don’t,” underscoring Washington’s commitment to defend Israel. “We are devoted to the defense of Israel. We will support Israel. We will help defend Israel and Iran will not succeed,” he said. Biden said he would not divulge secure information, but said his expectation was that an attack could come “sooner, rather than later.” Israel braced on Friday for an attack by Iran or its proxies as warnings grew of