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Tue, Sep 18, 2001 - Page 24 News List

World Business: Investors driven by fear, patriotism

HOLDING TIGHT Predictions about the stock markets' behavior have been difficult to make as e-mails circulate urging investors to ignore traditional market logic

NY TIMES NEWS SERVICE , NEW YORK

For example, property and casualty insurers, along with the reinsurance companies that back them, face claims that could run as high as US$30 billion to US$40 billion. And not all the victims are obvious: General Electric warned that its third-quarter earnings would come in below estimates because of World Trade Center-related claims of possibly US$600 million facing its Employers Reinsurance Corp subsidiary.

Some industries can expect to benefit from the turmoil. The shares of defense contractors like Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin often rise when war is in the air. Oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron could go up, too; though OPEC countries have promised to keep oil flowing, events could lead to volatility in supplies, which usually adds to oil company profits.

Gloria Dittus, who runs a Washington public relations firm, started one of the chain e-mails. "I'll buy 100 shares of American Airlines, because my brother is a pilot," Dittus said. "I don't care if I lose money. It's a statement."

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