Direct links soap opera has many episodes left

Beijing and Taipei may appear a step closer to ending a decades-old ban on direct air and shipping links following a Chinese invitation last week to two Taiwan tycoons to conduct talks.

But the thousands of businessmen who have to travel and ship goods via a third port, usually Hong Kong, can expect several more rounds of wordplay and horse-trading before talks on opening direct links can begin, analysts said on yesterday.

With a sensitive leadership change looming in Beijing this year and a presidential election due in Taiwan in 2004, both sides want progress.

Niether , however, intends to allow the other to dictate the agenda or take credit for a breakthrough, they said.

"Between China and Taiwan, a step forwards is often just a step sideways," said one Beijing-based diplomat.

"Economically speaking, direct links make sense for both. Politically, neither will accept them on the other's terms."

Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) tempered his stance when he offered to let private groups talk with Beijing on opening direct trade, transport and postal links, suspended since Nationalists fled to Taiwan in 1949 after defeat by Communist troops.

Opening the three links was "a road we must take", Chen said.

Last week, China's top Taiwan official responded by inviting Formosa Plastics chairman Wang Yung-ching (王永慶) and Kao Chin-yen (高清愿), CEO of the giant Uni-President food group to the mainland for talks on the "three links".

Taipei's overtures had "partially narrowed the gap" between the two sides' preconditions for talks, said Chen Yunlin (陳雲林), head of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, China's cabinet.

Many businesses hailed the exchange as a breakthrough.

Political analysts, however, warned them to be wary of the smoke-and-mirrors politics of China-Taiwan relations.

"Both sides are sounding out and testing each other," said Chao Chun-shan (趙春山), a professor at the Graduate Institute of Mainland Affairs at the private Tamsui-based Tamkang University.

"The two sides lack mutual trust," Chao said.

Dancing to Beijing's tune

Taiwan's top China policymaker Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) made it clear the democratic island would not dance to the mainland's tune.

"They can't appoint people on our behalf," Tsai said at a question-and-answer session in parliament last week.

"We will entrust a non-profit organization, not individuals, to enter into negotiations," a spokeswoman quoted her as saying.

Tsai also said the government would still "play a leading role in talks, but need not be on the front line".

However, Beijing reserves the right to veto Taiwan's chosen representative if it considers them opposed to reunification.

Beijing rejected Taipei's offer to send former vice president Li Yuan-zu (李元簇) to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shanghai last year.

"It's not a question of which individual or which organization, it's a question of whether they are pro-independence or pro-one China," said one senior Taiwan researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

Wang and Kao were chosen because they were opposed to Taiwan independence and their firms -- Formosa Plastics and Uni-President -- were among the biggest Taiwan investors in China, said the researcher, who asked not to be identified.

"As long as they accept that this is a matter within one country, then we can talk," she said.