Economists at Academia Sinica (
Researchers at the Academia Sinica Institute of Economics said that the stock market is one of the most sensitive indicators of economic revival. The recent rise in the stock market index has sent out the message that stock prices have hit bottom, they said.
The rising number of orders in the export-oriented electronics industry are getting production lines up and running again as warehouse stockpiles are gradually depleted, researchers added.
The Academia Sinica economists said that because the fourth-quarter economic growth rate last year was only 3.82 percent, the basis for comparison for this year's fourth-quarter growth was already relatively low.
Therefore, this year's fourth-quarter growth could reach negative 1 percent instead of the government-estimated negative 2.68 percent, they said.
The institute -- which is scheduled to announce its economic growth forecast for next year on Dec. 19 -- predicted that the economy's upswing momentum should carry into next year, with first-quarter economic growth reaching approximately 2 percent compared to the same period this year, when the economy grew by only 0.92 percent.
The institute believes Taiwan has a good chance of reaching the Council for Economic Planning and Development's 2.6 percent growth forecast for next year.
Meanwhile, the Taiwan Re-search Institute (台綜院), a local think tank affiliated with former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), announced in its 2002 economic forecast report yesterday that the nation's average economic growth for the latter half of next year will reach 3.97 percent, while the average growth rate for all of next year will be 2.24 percent.
The institute said Taiwan will post a negative economic growth rate of 2.18 percent this year.
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