Prediction market forecasts wins for DPP next month

By Ko Shu-ling  /  STAFF REPORTER

Thu, Dec 31, 2009 - Page 3

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is likely to win all three seats in next month’s legislative by-elections in Taoyuan, Taichung and Taitung counties, a university prediction market said yesterday.

The Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said that, on a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the probability of a DPP victory according to bidders as of 10:30am yesterday was NT$80.9 in Taoyuan County, NT$65.0 in Taichung County and NT$87.9 in Taitung County.

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidates were rated at NT$17.1 in Taoyuan County, at NT$25.1 in Taichung County and at NT$17.8 in Taitung County.

Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. The Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University covers politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment.

Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.

The three by-elections will be held on Jan. 9.

The vote in Taoyuan County is being held following the invalidation of the election of the KMT’s Liao Cheng-ching (廖正井) following his conviction for vote-buying.

The KMT has nominated Chen Li-ling (陳麗玲) as its new candidate. She will be running against the DPP’s Kuo June-tsung (郭榮宗).

The Taichung legislative by-election will be held to fill the seat left vacant by former KMT legislator Chiang Lien-fu (江連福), whose election status was also annulled over vote-buying. Taiping Mayor Yu Wen-chin (余文欽) is standing against the DPP’s Chien Chao-tung (簡肇棟).

KMT Legislator Justin Huang (黃健庭) resigned in October to run in this month’s Taitung County commissioner election, making him the seventh lawmaker in the current legislature to fail to complete his legislative term.

The KMT nominated Taitung County Commissioner Kuang Li-chen (鄺麗貞) to run in the county’s legislative by-election amid claims by the DPP that the nomination was a trade-off for an undertaking not to seek re-election as county commissioner. Kuang’s DPP rival is Lai Kun-cheng (賴坤成).

The center accurately predicted that the KMT would lose three seats in the local elections on Dec. 5, while the DPP would gain one.

The KMT clinched 12 of the 17 counties and cities in the elections for city mayor and county commissioner, garnering 47.88 percent of the total votes, a drop of 2 percent from the 2005 elections.

Although the DPP secured only four areas, it received 45.32 percent of the total ballots, a 7.2 percent increase.