EIU forecasts victory for Chen's pan-green alliance


Tue, Dec 07, 2004 - Page 3

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in the UK has predicted a pan-green victory in Saturday's legislative elections, and has suggested that next year is probably the only year in President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) second term when he will be able to make any real concessions in cross-strait relations.

According to the forecast, Chen will face less pressure to invigorate his supporters with China-bashing rhetoric, offering an opportunity for improved cross-strait relations.

But with the mayoral elections for Taipei and Kaohsiung in 2006, the EIU forecast said the window of opportunity is a brief one.

On the economic front, the forecast sees Taiwan suffering from a downturn in the global information-technology market next year, but suggests that slowing growth rates will mask other positive trends such as expansion in the sophisticated display sector and the benefits of the high-speed rail link between Taipei and Kaohsiung to be inaugurated in October next year.