Taiwan is likely to experience a normal to warmer winter, the Central Weather Bureau said yesterday, adding that cold fronts would still affect the nation.
While the sea temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean is low and that of the western Pacific is high, the temperature difference would gradually equalize, Weather Forecast Center Director Lu Kuo-chen (呂國臣) said as the bureau delivered its scheduled general weather forecast for winter, which lasts from this month to February.
Before spring arrives next year, the Pacific is likely to have normal climate conditions, he said.
The bureau forecast that cold air from the north would start affecting the nation’s weather in the first half of this month.
However, temperatures in the second half of the month would be normal or slightly warmer than normal, the bureau said.
The number of warm days would gradually diminish, with the average temperature varying between 17.3°C and 21.3°C this month, 15.7°C and 19.8°C next month and 16°C and 21°C in February, Lu said.
Despite the possibility of a warmer winter, the nation would likely still be affected by cold fronts, which are frequent in winter, he said.
The north would generally see more rainfall than the south, he added.
The bureau also summarized the weather in the fall, which ended last week.
A total of 16 tropical storms and typhoons formed in the northwest Pacific, 11 more than the climate average, bureau data showed.
Only Typhoon Mitag directly affected the nation, while the circumfluence of three storms brought rain, the bureau said.
The tropical storms and typhoons formed easily from September to last month due to the strong development of cyclonic circulations from east of the Philippines to the South China Sea, as well as the movement of the subtropical high pressure system to the north, it said.
The arrival of the first cold air system from the north that causes the temperature in Taipei to drop to less than 16°C has occurred much later since 1971, the bureau said.
Between 1951 and 1960, that cold air system arrived on or about Oct. 29, and between 1961 and 1970 it arrived on or about Oct. 25, the bureau said.
However, the average date was delayed to Nov. 13 between 1971 and 1980; to Nov. 16 between 1981 and 1990; to Nov. 24 between 1991 and 2000; to Nov. 26 between 2001 and 2010; and to Dec. 1 between 2011 and last year, it said.
Fall rainfall in coastal areas of the north and south was within the normal range, but was at all-time record lows in Alishan (阿里山), Yushan (玉山), Sun Moon Lake (日月潭) and Penghu County, it added.
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