A crisis in the Taiwan Strait could be imminent, a US academic said, adding that he believes Chinese pressure on Taiwan could intensify in the lead-up to and immediately following next year’s presidential election.
Michael Chase, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, made the comment in an article titled “Averting a Cross-Strait Crisis” published on Tuesday last week on the Web site of the Council on Foreign Relations, a US think tank.
China responded to President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) refusal to endorse its approach to the so-called “1992 consensus” by implementing a multifaceted pressure campaign to punish and coerce Taiwan into being more compliant, Chase said.
The “1992 consensus” — a term former Mainland Affairs Council chairman Su Chi (蘇起) admitted making up in 2000 — refers to a tacit understanding between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Beijing that both sides acknowledge there is “one China,” with each side having its own interpretation of what “China” means.
This pressure could intensify in the next 12 to 18 months to the extent that it triggers a new cross-strait crisis, he said, adding that a crisis would bear on US national security interests.
Possible warning signs include statements by Tsai, the approval rating of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), changing public opinion or the emergence of a more pro-independence DPP candidate, Chase said, adding: “The possibility of a DPP candidate Beijing distrusts even more than Tsai, or of a three-way race for the presidency in 2020, could create unpredictable dynamics.”
If a cross-strait crisis were to occur, it could exacerbate US-China tensions in areas where there was already considerable friction, for example maritime disputes in the South China Sea, or imperil cooperation such as over North Korean denuclearization, Chase said.
If the US fails to help Taiwan to respond to escalating Chinese pressure or if Washington responds, but is unable to help, other US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific — in particular Japan and South Korea — might believe Washington lacks resolve or capability, he said.
“Rather than waiting for the situation to deteriorate before taking action, US policymakers should consider and prepare to implement options to avert a cross-strait crisis,” he said, adding that they should “be better positioned to deal with one effectively if it cannot be avoided.”
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