In what has been seen as a show of force and an attempt to send a message to Taiwan and the US, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in December last year and last month — immediately after several People’s Liberation Army Air Force operations that circled Taiwan’s airspace — sailed its sole aircraft carrier beyond the first island chain and through the Taiwan Strait.
The Liaoning, built from the hull of unfinished Russian Kuznetsov-class carrier the Varyag, demonstrated its combat-readiness with a voyage to the South China Sea, a cross-sea, live-fire operation noted for its symbolism of China’s rising power and the attempt to prevent the US from adjusting its “one China” policy.
Although not a force comparable with US aircraft carriers, China’s “starter carrier” represents a significant leap in the air capabilities of the PLAN and is a “major threat” to Taiwan’s defense, senior military analyst Erich Shih (施孝瑋) said.
Photo: AFP
The carrier-borne Shenyang J-15 aircraft — developed after 2000 based on the Soviet-designed Sukhoi Su-33 — are more capable than Taiwan’s F-16s, which were manufactured between 1991 and 1997, Shih said.
“With Beijing having developed Chengdu J-20 aircraft and acquired Su-35 jets, the Ministry of National Defense’s project to upgrade the nation’s F-16s — to be refitted with anti-stealth radar and more advanced air-to-air missiles — could only narrow the gap between Taiwan and China in air capabilities, but would not swing the balance in a war,” Shih said.
The Liaoning’s air wing c of 24 J-15 airplanes, six Z-18F anti-submarine helicopters and four Changhe Z-18J early-warning helicopters can also outperform aircraft aboard the Japanese helicopter carrier Izumo, making the Chinese carrier a force to be reckoned with, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
However, the size of the Liaoning — 304m long and 70m wide — limits the number of aircraft it can carry, while the ski-jump configuration of its flight deck restricts fuel and ordnance loads.
The think tank estimated that a J-15 from the Liaoning would be limited to 28 tonnes, while the USS Ronald Reagan can launch aircraft with a maximum takeoff weight of 45 tonnes, meaning more firepower and greater range.
“Even when fully operational, the Liaoning will not enable long-range power projection similar to US Nimitz-class carriers,” according to the Pentagon’s annual report to the US Congress in 2015. “The Liaoning is therefore best suited to fleet air defense missions, extending air cover over a fleet operating far from land-based coverage.”
Despite and precisely because of its limitations, “the primary mission of the Liaoning, although unthinkable for an aircraft carrier, might be to escort submarines, a theory that Chinese analysts have put forward,” Shih said.
An escort role would be in line with its original design, as the Varyag and other Soviet carriers and surface vessels are designed to protect nuclear-capable submarines against the US navy.
“That said, the primary objective of the Liaoning might not be as the first line of power projection, but to be stationed in areas hundreds of kilometers away from Taiwan — such as the Miyako Strait — to barricade Taiwan and put off US intervention while allowing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to gain air supremacy,” Shih said.
With the Liaoning deployed far from Taiwan’s shores, it would be difficult for Taiwan’s armed forces to remove the carrier group without a highly difficult integrated air and sea attack that would aim to sneak small attack ships into the battle group’s defense perimeter, he said.
To defend the nation against China, the Ministry of Defense has outfitted the nation’s lead battleship and small attack vessels with advanced missile systems to increase sea denial capabilities, and plans to build submarines and a series of new-generation surface vessels and to develop long-range anti-ship missiles that can be carried by aircraft and road-mobile launchers.
Establishing a tight defense network with high-performance missiles is arguably the most financially and technologically viable option for Taiwan to improve its asymmetrical anti-ship capabilities, with the Hsiung Feng III supersonic anti-ship missile becoming the mainstay of Taiwan’s ship-destroying arsenal with a maximum range of 150km.
Former chief engineer of the Hsiung Feng III project Chang Cheng (張誠) said the supersonic missile, which can travel at up to three times the speed of sound and skim the surface of the sea to avoid detection, is virtually invisible to radar.
Due to the curvature of the Earth, ship-borne radar cannot detect low-flying objects more than 50km away, and the Liaoning battle group, even if it could detect an incoming missile, would have a maximum reaction time of about one minute, making it extremely difficult to launch countermeasures, Chang said.
“As few as four Hsiung Feng III missiles would be needed to launch a saturation attack against the Liaoning due to its limited radar and reconnaissance capabilities,” he said.
There is no surveillance aircraft aboard the Liaoning, except Z-18 early-warning helicopters, whose inability to fly at high altitudes severely limits the range of the ships’ airborne radar capability and allows the carrier group little reaction time against a supersonic missile.
“Reports that Beijing is planning to deploy ‘radar balloons’ are indicative of its recognition of the power of the Hsiung Feng III,” Chang said. “The deployment of 120 Hsiung Feng III missiles has been deemed adequate to defend the nation against China’s naval operations.”
To maximize the mobility and range of the missile defense network, the ministry has outfitted attack vessels — notably small stealth ships such as the Tuo Jiang-class corvettes — with the Hsiung Feng III and its subsonic variant, Hsiung Feng II.
The advantage of small attack vessels is their ability to hide from radar, as an aircraft carrier has difficulty detecting ships of less than 500 tonnes, while the Tuo Jiang-class corvettes, dubbed “aircraft carrier killers,” are about 600 tonnes, and the Ching Chiang-class patrol boat that misfired a Hsiung Feng III and destroyed a fishing boat in July last year weighed 500 tonnes, Chang said.
Rather than the rumored cost of NT$100 million (US$3.22 million) each, a Hsiung Feng III missile costs tens of millions of New Taiwan dollars, making it a cost-effective defensive option, Chang added.
Meanwhile, as Taiwan only has US-made torpedoes to deter submarines, the Hsiung Feng III, with its lightweight size — about 1,500kg and 6m long — might be developed into an air-to-sea anti-submarine missile, Chang said.
To keep the PLAN even further at bay, the ministry is reportedly close to finalizing the development of a ground-based longer-range variant of the Hsiung Feng III with an extended range of 300km to be positioned across Taiwan proper, as well as on outlying islands.
Meanwhile, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam are also armed with supersonic anti-ship missiles with ranges of more than 150km, and Taipei should explore the possibility of cooperating with neighboring nations to create a defense network that extends to major bodies of water within the first island chain.
According to a recent report by the US-based think tank the RAND Corporation, the deployment of ground-launched air-to-surface missiles in Taiwan and Okinawa “could effectively deny all naval traffic south of Okinawa.”
China could trigger deeper military partnerships between its neighbors and a stronger US presence in the region, with Taiwan reportedly establishing a cooperation with the US and Japan that allows the three nations’ military aircraft to be identified as friendly by radar, Chang said.
The nation also needs to develop or procure submarines that could break a potential naval blockade or mount a counterattack against Chinese forces, and the ministry has to develop mobile radar systems and upgrade ship-based radar systems to withstand a Chinese attack, as Taiwan’s radar bases could be easily destroyed at the outset of a war, Chang said.
Non-military avenues could also be pursued to prevent an armed conflict with China.
It is worth noting that President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) administration has been discreet and non-provocative in handling cross-strait affairs, and such political sensitivity could be the best defense Taiwan has, Shih said.
Tsai reportedly terminated the development of a long-range surface-to-surface missile capable of striking China’s heartland, and such a move would undoubtedly pacify Beijing, which has 1,500 ballistic and cruise missiles deployed against Taiwan, an arrangement of “weapons of mass destruction” that no nation in the world could defend against, he added.
With the cross-strait military balance heavily tilted in China’s favor, Taiwan’s security hinges on the nation’s ability to build up deterrence and the political wisdom to reassure Beijing while the nation achieves a full-fledged and independent democracy, he said.
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