Older people will outnumber children by next year, posing a significant challenge to the work force, social security and medical care, a report by the National Development Council said.
The nation’s aging index — the ratio of adults aged 65 and above per 100 people under the age of 15 — reached 98.8 percent this year and should surpass 100 percent next year, when older people would outnumber children, the report said.
With the aging index forecast to climb further to 460.9 percent in 2061 — or 4.6 older people per child — the number of older people needing care will be “an immense social burden,” the council said.
Due to the nation’s low birth rate, the percentage of the population aged 65 and over is expected to exceed 20 percent in 2026, making Taiwan a “super-aged society” as defined by the WHO, it said.
The most obvious impact of a graying population is the increased burden on the working population to provide for the old and the young, the report said.
Citing the most recent demographics, the report said that Taiwan had a dependency ratio (children below 15 years old and adults aged 65 and above) of 34.7 percent in 2012, which is a historic low.
The ratio increased slightly to 36.2 percent — with children accounting for 18.2 percentage points and adults 18 percentage points — which is comparatively manageable, because each dependent is supported by about three working-age adults, the report said.
However, by 2022, the dependency ratio is expected to shoot up to 42.1 percent — 18.3 percentage points made up of children and 23.8 points of older people, it said.
By 2061, the ratio is forecast to reach 94.2 percent, with an overwhelming majority of the population composed of older people, it said.
The most direct way for a government to offset a graying population is to implement policies that encourage higher birth rates, but overall conditions in Asia, especially in Taiwan, pose a challenge to implementing such policies, whose effects will take time to come to fruition, the report said.
The nation’s working-age population peaked last year and is on a downward trajectory, the council said, urging the government to push policies that encourage higher birth rates, economize educational resources and shore up public care for older people.
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