The nation is to experience a warmer and wetter spring next year due to the influence of the El Nino effect, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Bureau Weather Forecast Center Director Cheng Ming-dean (鄭明典) said that the average temperature this year could potentially be the second-highest on record, to be surpassed only by the yearly average of 24.39°C in 1998
“We had little rainfall in spring, which caused a water shortage early in the year. The plum rain mostly fell in the second half of May,” Cheng said, referring to the two-month long rainy period that takes place in late spring and early summer.
“We also observed strong typhoons in the summer and unusually high temperatures in fall. The weather this month is relatively warm compared with average temperatures,” he said.
Cheng said that the rise in the average temperature this year was mainly caused by the extreme weather patterns seen in June and last month.
This year was the first year since 1958 when typhoons formed in each month of the year, Cheng said, adding that this year’s rainfall was brought mainly by typhoons and the plum rain season.
Cheng said that the intensity of El Nino has reached its climax, which has come close to the strong El Nino effect that happened between 1997 and 1998.
Although the effect is forecast to weaken in the first half of next year, Cheng said that it would continue to affect the atmosphere for several months.
Citing meteorological records, Cheng said that a strong El Nino effect is usually followed by above-average rainfall in the spring, adding that forecasts made using the bureau’s numerical model supported this correlation.
“We forecast that the chance for a warmer spring with relatively more rainfall is greater,” he said.
The average global temperature could increase next year, Cheng said, adding that the issues of rising sea temperatures and global warming could become the focus of public attention again.
For those planning to spend the New Year’s Eve outdoors, the bureau forecast that the temperature late at night on Thursday next week would be between 16°C and 18°C in the north, 17°C and 19°C in the south and southeast, and 16°C and 18°C in the northeast.
While the chances of rain are high in the windward east and north coasts, the weather in Taipei is expected to be relatively stable, the bureau said, adding that the weather would remain stable as the New Year holiday begins on Friday.
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