The US has “deep and enduring interests” in preserving stability across the Taiwan Strait and has an important role to play in shaping the policies of both Beijing and Taipei, a new analytical article said on Thursday.
If the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) returns to power following next year’s presidential elections, Washington can help prod both sides, it says.
Written by Center for Strategic and International Studies senior adviser for Asia Bonnie Glaser and research associate Jacqueline Vitello, the article was published in National Interest.
It says the US can encourage both sides to find a modus vivendi that ensures cross-strait communication channels remain open and pragmatic cooperation continues.
US efforts need to be stepped up now, concludes the article, before the positions of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) “harden further.”
Glaser and Vitello believe it is “increasingly likely” that the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would win the presidential election.
“Xi Jinping’s reaction to a Tsai Ing-wen victory should not be underestimated,” they said.
According to Glaser and Vitello, in addition to Xi’s consistently tough remarks about Taiwan, there have been other signals of his “uncompromising stance” toward Taiwan.
“Since assuming power, Xi Jinping’s approach to Taiwan has been consistently hardline and at times, remarkably out of step with the sentiments of the majority of Taiwanese,” they said.
The writers add that Xi’s target audience may not be Taiwan, but Beijing.
“He may be determined to not appear weak on Taiwan lest it undermine his power and ability to implement his larger agenda of achieving the ‘Chinese Dream,’” they say.
Glaser and Vitello say that alternatively Xi may not understand Taiwan as well as many observers say he does.
“Chinese scholars say that Xi does not seek out the advice of experts or officials in the Taiwan Affairs Office in developing policy toward Taiwan — rather he relies on his own counsel,” they said.
A third possibility, according to Glaser and Vitello, is that Xi has concluded it is time to put greater pressure on Taiwan and “draw a line in the sand” to prevent cross-strait ties from regressing and potentially to compel unification if a new Taiwanese president crosses Beijing’s red line.
“Whatever the reason, there is a significant possibility that if Tsai Ing-wen is elected president of Taiwan next January, a cross-strait crisis could ensue,” they said.
The writers said this may occur even though Tsai has made a concerted effort to articulate a strategy aimed at maintaining the cross-strait “status quo.”
“All of her statements point to the fact that she is unlikely to pursue provocative policies such as [former president] Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) attempted to carry out when he was in power,” they said.
Glaser and Vitello say that nevertheless, China “deeply distrusts” Tsai.
“The article is about Xi Jinping and how he may react to Tsai Ing-wen’s election, due in part to domestic considerations,” Glaser told the Taipei Times.
“If cross-Strait tensions rise, I believe it will be primarily a result of Chinese overreaction, not Tsai’s policies,” she added.
DPP Washington liaison Michael Fonte said: “Tsai Ing-wen will not be the cause of any crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Whether Xi Jinping will see fit to create a crisis remains to be seen.”
Responsibility for maintaining a stable and cooperative cross-strait relationship must be shouldered by both Beijing and Taipei, Glaser and Vitello said.
“If Tsai is elected Taiwan’s next president, the two sides will need to agree on a new formulation that provides a basis for managing cross-Strait ties,” they say.
“The interests of both Taiwan and Mainland China will be best served by the adoption of a pragmatic approach that takes into account prevailing realities,” Glaser and Vitello add. “Outright rejection by Tsai of the framework – including the 1992 consensus — that has enabled more than seven years of relatively low tensions and cooperation across the Strait would be damaging and counterproductive.”
“Chinese unwillingness to find a compromise with the DPP that preserves cross-Strait stability while at the same time protecting Beijing’s bottom line of avoiding the risk of Taiwan independence would be similarly destructive and unwise,” they said.
Former Czech Republic-based Taiwanese researcher Cheng Yu-chin (鄭宇欽) has been sentenced to seven years in prison on espionage-related charges, China’s Ministry of State Security announced yesterday. China said Cheng was a spy for Taiwan who “masqueraded as a professor” and that he was previously an assistant to former Cabinet secretary-general Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰). President-elect William Lai (賴清德) on Wednesday last week announced Cho would be his premier when Lai is inaugurated next month. Today is China’s “National Security Education Day.” The Chinese ministry yesterday released a video online showing arrests over the past 10 years of people alleged to be
THE HAWAII FACTOR: While a 1965 opinion said an attack on Hawaii would not trigger Article 5, the text of the treaty suggests the state is covered, the report says NATO could be drawn into a conflict in the Taiwan Strait if Chinese forces attacked the US mainland or Hawaii, a NATO Defense College report published on Monday says. The report, written by James Lee, an assistant research fellow at Academia Sinica’s Institute of European and American Studies, states that under certain conditions a Taiwan contingency could trigger Article 5 of NATO, under which an attack against any member of the alliance is considered an attack against all members, necessitating a response. Article 6 of the North Atlantic Treaty specifies that an armed attack in the territory of any member in Europe,
LIKE FAMILY: People now treat dogs and cats as family members. They receive the same medical treatments and tests as humans do, a veterinary association official said The number of pet dogs and cats in Taiwan has officially outnumbered the number of human newborns last year, data from the Ministry of Agriculture’s pet registration information system showed. As of last year, Taiwan had 94,544 registered pet dogs and 137,652 pet cats, the data showed. By contrast, 135,571 babies were born last year. Demand for medical care for pet animals has also risen. As of Feb. 29, there were 5,773 veterinarians in Taiwan, 3,993 of whom were for pet animals, statistics from the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Agency showed. In 2022, the nation had 3,077 pediatricians. As of last
XINJIANG: Officials are conducting a report into amending an existing law or to enact a special law to prohibit goods using forced labor Taiwan is mulling an amendment prohibiting the importation of goods using forced labor, similar to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) passed by the US Congress in 2021 that imposed limits on goods produced using forced labor in China’s Xinjiang region. A government official who wished to remain anonymous said yesterday that as the US customs law explicitly prohibits the importation of goods made using forced labor, in 2021 it passed the specialized UFLPA to limit the importation of cotton and other goods from China’s Xinjiang Uyghur region. Taiwan does not have the legal basis to prohibit the importation of goods