The nation is expected to have a warm and dry winter this year due to the El Nino effect, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said yesterday.
Bureau weather forecast center director Cheng Ming-dean (鄭明典) said that a weak El Nino effect is forecast to occur this winter, and statistics have shown that winters tend to be warmer in Taiwan whenever the effect appears.
“Except at the beginning of December, in which the weather should be relatively wetter and colder, the temperature for the rest of this winter should be warmer,” he said. “The rainfall in northern Taiwan should be normal, but other regions should experience drier weather.”
Despite a relatively warmer winter, Cheng said this does not mean the nation would not see the occurrence of cold waves. He said on average there are cold waves three to four times each year, with the number ranging from one to six times per year.
Cold waves generally occur in January, Cheng added.
The bureau also forecast that there would be about 38 days in the next three months when the temperature is below 14oC.
“While the temperature will be low when the nation is under the influence of cold air masses or cold surges, the temperature should rebound quickly afterward because the sea temperature is still high,” Cheng said.
The bureau said that rainfall last month and this month hit a record low, and the rainfall in December and January is usually the lowest each year.
Whether the El Nino effect could serve as relief to the water shortage problem remains to be seen, the bureau said, adding that there has been research suggesting that the effect could bring in above-normal rainfall in its mature stage.
Data from the bureau showed the 13 weather observation stations nationwide all reported their lowest rainfalls both last month and this month since 1947.
Commenting on the phenomenon, Cheng said that a strong subtropical high-pressure system had extended its influence westward to Taiwan over the past two months, preventing humidity from the South China Sea from engulfing the nation.
The bureau said that the first cold air mass this winter is forecast to arrive on Monday, lowering the temperature nationwide, adding that the cold air mass would continue to affect the nation until Friday, with highs dropping to 13oC in north and northeastern regions.
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