“Smaller businesses like us can’t increase our income because of China,” said Shih Hsi-liang, a business owner in Greater Taichung, whose firm does interior design and woodcrafts in local workshops and factories. “We’re too small and don’t have the means to touch this larger market, they won’t come to look for us.”
Still, there has been clear progress from Ma’s initiatives.
The controlled opening of the economy has boosted trade and investment, increasing the number of direct flights between Taiwan and China from virtually nil to 100 a day and bringing more than 2 million Chinese tourists to Taiwan who have spent more than US$3 billion.
China has become Taiwan’s top trading partner, taking 28 percent of its exports so far this year compared with 12 percent for the US. Cross-strait trade totaled US$145.37 billion last year, up 36.9 percent from 2009.
Officially reported and approved Taiwanese investment in China has totaled US$39.3 billion during Ma’s four-year tenure since 2008, almost two-thirds of the total US$58.3 billion in the 16 years prior to his term in office.
Fledgling Chinese investment in Taiwan is trickling in too, totaling US$170.1 million between when it was first allowed in June 2009 and October, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Ma’s policy of economic engagement with China reached a zenith with last year’s Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) that slashed hundreds of tariffs on Taiwanese exports to China and paved the way for more talks on economic integration.
“It’s a good direction and a right direction ... at least he [Ma] has settled cross-strait relations and enhanced Taiwan’s international value,” said Bert Lim (林建山), president of Taipei-based economic policy think tank The World Economics Society.
That agreement had helped give an edge to goods “Made in Taiwan” over those “Made in China,” both in China and internationally, said Lim, an economist who also sits on government policy advisory panels.
“That’s Ma’s biggest achievement. Now what he has to do is let the people feel that value,” he said.
Another aspect of Ma’s legacy remains a sensitive issue for many voters: How long will China, which has a stated policy of reclaiming Taiwan, by force if necessary, continue its largesse.
China’s growing economic clout has become an increasingly important means for it to exert influence over Taiwan. Beijing views Tsai with suspicion and warned that progress will halt if the DPP, which leans toward a more independent Taiwan, wins the election.
There will eventually be a limit for the preferential policies with which China can entice Taiwan, according to Zheng Zhenqing, assistant professor at Tsinghua University’s Institute of Taiwan Studies, suggesting Beijing would start to tire if Taipei did not in some way reciprocate.
“It needs to work both ways,” Zheng said. “China cannot go on giving out preferential policies for Taiwan forever. People at home will start to get angry.”
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