US National Security Adviser Tom Donilon expects to face more protests over Washington’s decision to update Taiwan’s F-16A/B fleet when he arrives in Beijing tomorrow.
Donilon will meet Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan (王岐山) and State Councilor Dai Bingguo (戴秉國) during his three-day visit to negotiate future bilateral meetings at the presidential and Cabinet level.
Not only are Wang and Dai believed ready to strongly condemn the US$5.85 billion F-16 update deal, but they may also warn the US against any reconsideration of selling F-16C/D aircraft to Taiwan.
Very senior US officials have said this month that while the administration of US President Barack Obama will not sell the 66 F-16C/Ds requested by Taiwan at this time, a potential sale remains on the table and is still being considered.
An administration source told the Taipei Times that protests were “virtually guaranteed” during Donilon’s Beijing talks.
The source said that Donilon would not discuss arms sales to Taipei while in Beijing and would offer no reassurances about future sales.
Donilon’s China visit comes after Dean Cheng (成斌), a research fellow in the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation, published an analysis of the latest US-Taiwan arms sale package, putting the F-16A/B updates into perspective.
It says the upgrades would focus on improving aerial detection capability, as well as some aspects of survivability, and would include active electronically scanned array radar systems. Another element of the proposed upgrade program is a range of new or improved electronic warfare systems.
“In the face of China’s modern SAMs [surface-to-air missiles], these systems are essential if the aircraft are to survive long enough to intercept PLAAF [People’s Liberation Army Air Force] aircraft,” the analysis says.
It adds that the White House has refused to upgrade the aircrafts’ engines — a move that would have substantially improved performance.
“The administration should reconsider its decision not to sell F-16C/Ds to Taiwan. Other than a desire not to offend Beijing, the reason behind the administration’s refusal to provide F-16C/Ds to Taipei remains unclear,” Cheng’s analysis says.
“If the administration is serious about being willing to sell Taiwan the F-16C/Ds at some future date, then it should explicitly state what would be required to complete the sale,” he wrote. “Should the administration refuse to sell Taiwan the F-16C/Ds, then the US should take at least some ameliorative steps to address Taiwan’s defense needs.”
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