The final televised policy session of the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) presidential nomination process is shaping up to be a make or break appearance.
The fourth session, the last before the official telephone polls start on Monday, begins at 8pm tonight and will be broadcast live on SET-TV.
The two-hour show is expected to see the candidates questioned on issues such as social welfare, health and the environment, since sensitive cross-strait and sovereignty topics were covered during the earlier sessions.
However, in their opening and closing statements, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) could announce new policy proposals or ideas to sway supporters, because no noticeable winner has emerged after the first three sessions earlier in the month.
On cross-strait policy, which was a focus in the first and second sessions, Tsai could possibly expand her ideas on how a future DPP administration would deal with Beijing, said Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明), a political scientist at Soochow University.
“It will help take the spotlight off the recent questions over her sexual orientation,” Hsu said, referring to the media storm ignited by a remark from former DPP chairperson Shih Ming-teh (施明德).
The two frontrunners would also emphasize party unity, coming after Su and Tsai each used one of the sessions to suggest to supporters to drop their attacks on other campaigns, Hsu said.
Tsai used the last three minutes of her closing remarks last Wednesday to stress that the three candidates, including former DPP chairperson Hsu Hsin-liang (許信良), “all represent the Democratic Progressive Party” — regardless of who ended up taking the nomination.
DPP observers watching Tsai and Su’s campaigns caution that both would also seek to avoid further dividing the party during the fourth session. Opening and closing remarks would likely focus instead on personal experience and policy ideas, they said.
Under the DPP format, the candidates aren’t given time for cross-examination.
While the method was used to avoid any direct competition between the candidates, it has led to remarks that the two-hour sessions have been dull and stiff.
Commenting on the first three sessions, former vice president Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) said only Hsu Hsin-liang, a proponent of closer cross-strait ties, appears to have “spoken his mind,” while the other two “have only been speaking political pretenses.”
“Only you appeared to have spoken in human language,” Lu told Hsu Hsin-liang when the two met on Monday.
However, Niu Tse-hsun (鈕則勳), who studies political marketing at the Chinese Culture University, said DPP supporters should not expect any major surprises tonight because both frontrunners will continue to offer restrained performances.
“Tsai and Su will likely make passionate appeals during their closing remarks — but they will be guarded remarks to avoid any sort of controversy,” Niu said.
Su, Niu said, would most likely play to his strengths, consistent with his campaign’s efforts over the past few months to portray him as close to the everyday public through television commercials, policy announcements and the locations of his campaign events.
“He will make an appeal to the heart. He will care about local issues and attempt to mark himself as different from Tsai,” Niu said.
Meanwhile, Tsai will make a last-ditch effort to intertwine herself with the DPP — giving supporters the impression that a vote for her is one for the party, Niu said. Tsai has consistently played up her party credentials.
It is unclear how tonight’s session will play out in terms poll numbers. While Su has seen his support figures increase slightly since the first debate, he and Tsai are still within the margins of error — highlighting the importance of today.
The latest Broadcasting Corp of China-commissioned poll, conducted after the first two sessions, gave Su the best chances of beating President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), with 32.46 percent against 33.21 percent respectively. Tsai would take 32.43 against Ma’s 34.97 percent, the survey wrote.
The two were in full preparation mode last night. Su forwent all public appearances with a campaign spokesman saying that he was taking the time to study tonight’s platform material. Tsai only took part in one conference in southern Taiwan.
“[Today] is the last session, Su is rigorously preparing the content of his election platform,” campaign spokesman Lee Hou-ching (李厚慶) said in remarks that were also echoed by Tsai campaign spokesperson Hsu Chia-ching (徐佳青).
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