The likelihood of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidates in Taipei and Sinbei cities winning November mayoral elections exceeded that of their Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) opponents for the first time in the wake of the flora pricing debacle, a university prediction center said yesterday.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center said the odds that incumbent Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) of the KMT would win the November polls stood at NT$47.4 yesterday.
The price of his DPP opponent Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) grew from NT$50 before the controversy to NT$52.4 yesterday.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting its probability.
Hau and Su have been locked in a tight race since Su was nominated in May. However, the situation began to change after two DPP city councilors claimed two weeks ago that the contract price for flowers used to spruce up the Xinsheng Overpass was unreasonably high.
The city government failed to clarify the matter and did not take any action until a week later, when it replaced officials and launched an investigation to determine if corruption or bribery was involved in purchase plans for the Xinsheng Overpass and the Taipei International Flora Expo. However, the steps were taken too late to stop the immediate damage to Hau’s popularity.
The fallout also boosted the prospects of the DPP’s candidate for Sinbei City, DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).
While Tsai and her KMT opponent, former premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), have been running neck-and-neck, the probability that Tsai would win the election increased from NT$49.9 to NT$52.3 yesterday, while the bidding price for Chu dropped from NT$49.5 to NT$48.5.
Meanwhile, DPP candidates hold a seemingly insurmountable advantage in the south, the center said. For Greater Kaohsiung, the possibility of DPP candidate Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) winning remains high, but has gradually declined. It reached its highest of NT$89 in June and then fell to NT$79.3 in July and then NT$69.5 yesterday.
Her KMT challenger, Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), remained low at between NT$14 and NT$16. Her latest value was NT$15.4 yesterday.
The price of Kaohsiung County Commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興) jumped to NT$41.30 after he announced his candidacy last month to run in the Greater Kaohsiung mayoral race as an independent. However, it quickly dropped to NT$15.10 and then rebounded to NT$19.8 yesterday.
In Greater Tainan, the margin between DPP candidate William Lai (賴清德) and his KMT opponent, Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財), remained large, but Lai’s prices also continued to descend, sinking from NT$91.5 in June to NT$90 in July and then to NT$85 last month.
The latest value was NT$77 yesterday. KMT Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) continues to hold the lead in Greater Taichung. Hu’s lead over the DPP’s Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) has been narrowed from 42 percentage points in May, to 30 percentage points yesterday. Hu’s price was NT$64.8 yesterday and Su Jia-chyuan’s was NT$34.7.
FAST TRACK? Chinese spouses must renounce their Chinese citizenship and pledge allegiance to Taiwan to gain citizenship, some demonstrators said Opponents and supporters of a bill that would allow Chinese spouses to obtain Taiwanese citizenship in four years instead of six staged protests near the Legislative Yuan in Taipei yesterday morning. Those who oppose the bill proposed by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) demanded that Chinese spouses be granted citizenship only after renouncing their Chinese citizenship, passing a citizenship test and pledging allegiance to Taiwan. The demonstrators, who were protesting at a side entrance to the Legislative Yuan on Jinan Road, were mostly members of the Taiwan Association of University Professors and other organizations advocating Taiwanese independence. Supporters of the bill, led
SILENT MAJORITY: Only 1 percent of Chinese rejected all options but war to annex Taiwan, while one-third viewed war as unacceptable, a university study showed Many Chinese are more concerned with developments inside their country than with seeking unification with Taiwan, al-Jazeera reported on Friday. Although China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has vowed to annex it, by force if necessary, 23-year-old Chinese Shao Hongtian was quoted by al-Jazeera as saying that “hostilities are not the way to bring China and Taiwan together.” “I want unification to happen peacefully,” Shao said. Al-Jazeera said it changed Shao’s name to respect his wish for anonymity. If peaceful unification is not possible, Shao said he would prefer “things to remain as they are,” adding that many of his friends feel
Taiwan has “absolute air superiority” over China in its own airspace, Deputy Minister of National Defense Po Horng-huei (柏鴻輝) told a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee on Monday, amid concern over whether Taipei could defend itself against a military incursion by Beijing. Po made the remarks in response to a question from Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Chiu Chih-wei (邱志偉) on whether Taiwan would have partial or complete air superiority if Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) warplanes were to enter Taiwan’s airspace. Po, a retired pilot, said that the Taiwanese military has “absolute air superiority” over PLA
A shipment of basil pesto imported by Costco Wholesale Taiwan from the US in the middle of last month was intercepted at the border after testing positive for excessive pesticide residue, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said yesterday. Samples taken from a shipment of the Kirkland Signature brand of basil pesto imported by Costco contained 0.1 milligrams per kilogram of ethylene oxide, exceeding the non-detectable limit. Ethylene oxide is a carcinogenic substance that can be used as a pesticide. The 674kg shipment of basil pesto would either be destroyed or returned to its country of origin, as is the procedure for all