Should China and Taiwan grow so close that the nation’s territorial waters would fall under the Chinese naval control, “the ability of the US navy to operate in that area of the Pacific would be constrained,” University of Miami China specialist June Teufel Dreyer said.
Others contend that “Finlandization” would benefit the US.
Bud Cole, a China specialist at the National War College in Washington, said Taiwan’s strategic value is overblown and that its absorption by China would not “significantly weaken the US strategic position in Asia.”
Taiwan-China reconciliation would also give Washington a reason to ditch arms sales to Taiwan and remove a major irritant in ties with Beijing, some said.
In a sign that reasoning is making headway, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Diane Feinstein last month called the most recent sale “a mistake.” A retired admiral, William Owens, has also called for ending the sales.
Former Pentagon official Thomas Mahnken believes reducing the sales would send the wrong signal to Japan and South Korea, long Washington’s key partners in the Pacific. Still, he said, Washington’s resistance may be waning.
“A key question is, how much longer will American political leaders be willing to take the Chinese pressure that comes with arms sales to Taiwan,” Mahnken said. “I’m really not sure.”
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