Such a move “could potentially deliver a staggering blow” to Taiwan’s air force.
“If China can largely shut down Taiwan’s air bases for even a few hours, it would gain a substantial — perhaps decisive — advantage in the air,” Shlapak said.
“Our analysis indicates that adding 50 new fighters to the [Republic of China Air Force] might improve Taiwan’s situation, but those results depended strongly on the island’s air bases remaining operational.
“An F-16C that cannot fly because its base has no usable runways or one that has been destroyed by an attack on its outdoor parking area or its shelter offers no advantage over an older fighter similarly situated,” he said.
Shlapak said, however, that air bases could be further hardened by burying all fuel storage and providing shelters for all aircraft.
Taiwan’s air force could also seek to acquire some number of short take-off, vertical landing fighters like the F-35B currently being developed for the US Marine Corps, which requires a much shorter stretch of intact runway from which to operate.
“Taiwan’s desire to procure additional F-16s is understandable,” said Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute. “A follow-on procurement of F-16s could serve as a bridge pending the availability of very short take off and landing airframes.”
“A full-scale military conflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait would be [a] disaster, not only for Taiwan and the PRC, but for the US and the world as a whole,” he said. It would be a form of “mutually assured economic destruction.”
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