“The government has to take action now,” Haub said.
However, the government has shown little inclination to introduce effective measures, said Chen Yu-hua, a demographer at National Taiwan University.
“It seems the government does not have any strong political will to do anything about it. It doesn’t provide any incentive for the people,” she said.
There is also no particular pressure yet from public opinion to act, as the general understanding of the issues remains low, Chen said.
With a population density ranked as the 15th-highest in the world, many would welcome a drop in numbers, but the key issue is how to achieve this, she said.
“You need to have proportional decrease for each age group, not just a decrease among the young,” Chen said, referring to the problem of a thinning work force supporting millions of retirees.
But a “proportional decrease” is not practically possible — a government cannot cut the number of those already born — and therefore Taiwan has no other choice but a gradual reduction, not the steep one seen now, she said.
“Many people think a decrease of the population is good for Taiwan. It will help the environment,” she said. “But we really need to be concerned about the fertility issue. If we want to rely on ourselves, we need to encourage Taiwanese people to produce a new generation.”
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