EU NO ROLE MODEL
Fell said there were aspects of the EU model that appeal to both Ma and Chen, but there would be serious problems if the EU model was used for Taiwan.
“I doubt Taiwan would be able to cope with free labor migration from China,” he said. “We have to remember that while the EU is based on democratic systems, Taiwan and China’s political systems are worlds apart.”
The Chinese side has never shown any interest in an EU-style model, which would be accepting a “two China” model, he said.
Danielsen said the EU model was not suitable because it was for sovereign states with common values that treated each other equally. While Taiwan was a democracy, China remains an authoritarian regime despite reforms, he said.
“Why should you marry someone who puts a gun at your head?” he said. “It will not be a happy marriage with the ‘Anti-Secession’ Law in place.”
Casarini said the EU model was not suitable for Taiwan — or any other region in the world.
This does not mean that the idea of integrating nations was not a viable one, however, because it was in Taiwan’s interests to find a way to develop a closer relationship with China but maintain its independence, he said.
The pundits agree that time is a key factor.
Time is on Taiwan’s side if the Taiwanese are ready, Danielsen said. It would require unity among the Taiwanese to send a clear message to the world exactly what they want for their future.
“The next presidential election is crucial for Taiwan,” he said. “We are living in a historic juncture in which the EU and US want compromises no matter what price they will pay ... Taiwan could be sacrificed in a compromise for ‘peace.’”
Casarini said it was easy to say time was on China’s side, but such an assertion was superficial.
While the majority of the Taiwanese prefer maintaining the “status quo,” they must pay attention to changes in the world and in China.
“The ‘status quo,’ I’m afraid, is not going to last,” he said. “If we still think nothing will happen in the world, Taiwan will be taken by surprise one day.”
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