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Beijing may demand payback: experts

Beijing believes it has made many concessions since President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) came to power and is likely to ask Taiwan for something in return, an expert attending a cross-strait forum said yesterday.

Liu Bih-rong (劉必榮), a political science professor at Soochow University, said that Beijing has made several concessions over the past year, including not opposing former vice president Lien Chan's (連戰) attendance at the APEC as Ma's envoy, Taiwan's participation in the World Health Assembly as an observer and Ma attending the Kaohsiung World Games in his capacity as the head of state, as well as refraining from luring Taiwan's diplomatic allies in Southern and Central America.

“But Taiwan has also made some concessions too, including not seeking UN membership this year,” he said.

“With Beijing making so many concessions, some people are worried that it may ask Taiwan for something in return,” he said.

Liu said that it could concern arms procurement, or an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) the administration seeks to sign with Beijing, adding that anything economic, political or military could be a bargaining chip.

That is why some hope to see the administration take a slower path to improving cross-strait relations, he said.

Liu made the remarks during an international forum on cross-strait relations in Muzha yesterday. The two-day event, entitled “International Conference on China: Six Decades and After,” was organized by National Chengchi University's Center for China Studies and Institute of Development Studies in conjunction with the Mainland Affairs Council.

You Ji (由驥), a professor at the School of Social Sciences and International Studies at the University of New South Wales, said Ma had made the payback when he announced his “three noes” policy.

The “three noes” refer to no discussion of unification with Beijing during his presidency, no pursuit or support of de jure Taiwanese independence and no use of military force to resolve cross-strait tensions.

Liu said it would be a good thing if Beijing shared the same thinking, but he was worried that it did not.

“I'm sure there must be some people among the hardliners calculating what concessions Beijing has made for Taipei and how much Taipei has paid back,” he said.

Liu said it would pose great uncertainty for cross-strait ties if Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping (習近平), a front-runner to succeed President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) as party leader in 2012 and president in 2013, wishes to pursue Hu's path of peaceful development in the Taiwan Strait but cannot make hardliners agree.

You said Beijing's Taiwan policy has changed over time, from using military force to resolve the issue to using the military campaign as a threat to maintain the “status quo.”

“In fact there are other better and more cost-effective means available for Beijing to promote ultimate reunification,” You said. “Economic and cultural integration. This is the core content of Hu's Taiwan strategy defined by 'peaceful development,' which reflects Hu's confidence that time is on Beijing's side.”

With Taipei and Beijing becoming economically inseparable, You said the initiative will be firmly in Beijing's hands.

“Therefore, as long as the Taiwan Strait remains stable, CCP [Chinese Communist Party] leaders would be less concerned about ultimate reunification than about effective management of complicated domestic and international affairs,” he said.
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