Former minister of health Yeh Ching-chuan’s (葉金川) loss in the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) primary for Hualien County commissioner this month was a warning to President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), analysts say.
Yeh was considered Ma’s handpicked candidate and his loss reflects unhappiness with Ma’s leadership, the pundits said.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said Yeh’s loss was Ma’s first no-confidence vote. It also predicted the KMT would suffer a setback in the Yunlin County legislative by-election later this month.
Others ask whether Yeh’s loss indicated the beginning of the “post-Ma Ying-jeou era.”
Yeh resigned from the ministry on Aug. 3 amid mounting speculation that Ma wanted him to stand in the party primary, but despite criticism that he was quitting in the face of a widening swine flu threat.
The KMT nominated former Hualien County Agricultural Development Office director Tu Li-hua (杜麗華) following Yeh’s defeat. Complicating the issue is the refusal of KMT Legislator Fu Kun-chi (傅崑萁) and Hualien County Deputy Commissioner Chang Chih-ming (張志明) to give up bids for the Hualien County commissioner race.
Chang said he has the backing of Hualien County Commissioner Hsieh Shen-san (謝深山). Fu, however, enjoys widespread support and has topped several opinion polls.
The KMT excluded Fu from the party primary because he has a criminal record. He was convicted in May 2003 for speculating in Taiwan Pineapple Group shares in 1998 and an appeal is pending.
Wang Yeh-lih (王業立), a political science professor at National Taiwan University, said Yeh’s defeat posed a threat to Ma’s leadership and could create a domino effect.
“It indicates a decline in Ma’s leadership and popularity, especially after Typhoon Morakot,” he said, adding that some candidates had taken down posters or billboards featuring them with Ma.
As Ma is set to take over the KMT chairmanship next month, Wang said, the first hurdle he will face will be to prevent a split in the December elections.
Apart from Hualien, Taitung, Taoyuan and Hsinchu candidates are experiencing similar problems, he said.
The DPP could stand a good chance of winning some seats if Ma cannot convince other hopefuls to stand down.
“The political landscape will change dramatically if Ma fails in this task,” Wang said. “In a sense, it marks the beginning of the ‘post-Ma’ era, but it is still too early to tell.”
Ma will face a strong challenge to his leadership of the party if it wins fewer than 10 seats in city and county elections, Wang said.
Describing Yeh’s defeat as a warning, Wang said that although it was right for Ma to nominate someone with a clean reputation and national recognition, he failed to take Hualien’s peculiar political culture into account.
“Previous elections have taught both the pan-blue and pan-green camps that Hualien residents prefer someone who is local and spends time providing services to them,” Wang said. “Yeh’s defeat shows the KMT’s long-term indifference to cultivating local talent.”
Institute for National Development executive director Leou Chia-feng (柳嘉峰) said the DPP faced the same dilemma, citing the example of former Straits Exchange Foundation vice chairman Michael You (游盈隆), a Hualien native who failed three times in his bid to become county commissioner.
“As the DPP does not have the assets to compete with the KMT, its candidates must be eminent and have local connections or they do not stand a chance,” Leou said.
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