The balance of military power between China and Taiwan is shifting toward Beijing, leaving Taiwan few options without US aid in the event of an attack, a threat that has not eased despite warming ties.
China has invested billions of dollars in its military, buying from Russia, developing its own advanced fighter jets and missiles, and slimming its once bloated ranks into a lean and high-tech military, analysts say.
It is also considering building an aircraft carrier.
Taiwan’s forces, by contrast, are increasingly hobbled by outdated systems, unwillingness by almost every country but the US to sell it weapons, and by troop cuts as part of a strategic reduction.
Since taking office last year, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has eased tensions through trade and tourism deals, a far cry from his predecessor, Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), who supported formal independence, but military suspicion remains deep.
“They’ve always had a quantitative edge over the Taiwanese, but the Chinese have really closed if not eliminated the qualitative edge the Taiwanese had for decades,” said Richard Bitzinger, senior fellow and Asian military expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
China’s overwhelming military superiority, combined with Taiwan’s deepening economic reliance on China and its growing diplomatic isolation, could force a resolution to the sovereignty issue even without a shot having to be fired.
“That’s the intention — to combine growing military leverage and a stronger military, to maybe eventually just present Taiwan with some kind of fait accompli about accepting reunification,” Bitzinger said.
ANNIVERSARY
While Beijing’s language has softened, it is in no mood to let Taiwan go its own way, 60 years after Mao Zedong (毛澤東) proclaimed the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
In July, Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie (梁光烈), while noting “positive changes” in cross-strait relations, pointedly did not offer to pare back forces aimed at Taiwan, nor renounce the use of force to bring Taiwan under China’s control.
“We will firmly hold the theme of peaceful cross-strait development ... oppose the secessionist activities of ‘Taiwan independence’ forces and firmly safeguard China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he was quoted as saying in state media.
VISIT
China has reacted angrily to Taiwan’s decision to allow Tibet’s exiled spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, to visit this week, in a reminder, if one were needed, that knotty political problems overshadow improving economic and cultural links. China brands the Dalai Lama a separatist.
Taiwan estimates China still has 1,000 to 1,500 missiles aimed at it and Beijing continues to expand its arsenal.
“Given mainland China’s state power and military might, most people wouldn’t believe Taiwan could win a war by itself,” Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Secretary-General Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) said.
The RAND Corp, a US-based policy research group, estimated in a recent report that short-range Chinese ballistic missiles could easily destroy the runways of every airbase in Taiwan in a well-targeted initial strike to knock out the air force.
Taiwan’s navy could fare even worse. It has just four submarines, two of which date back to World War II and still have some of their original brass fittings. China has more than 50, a few believed to be armed with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.
DESTROYED
“One expects many of Taiwan’s naval vessels will be destroyed very quickly. Taiwan’s fighters and other aircraft would move to airbases where there are underground facilities, but, over time and attrition, most of Taiwan’s fighters would be destroyed or have few places to simply land and refuel,” said Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief with Defense News.
While the prospect of war breaking out may seem remote at present, there are no guarantees that Taiwan, a boisterous democracy, will re-elect Ma in presidential elections in 2012.
The Democratic Progressive Party could get back into power with a leader who supports de jure independence from China, which is the red line where Beijing has said it would consider attacking.
DEFENSIVE NEEDS
The Obama administration is re-evaluating Taiwan’s “defensive needs” as a whole, US officials in Taipei have said.
China could target missiles at US bases in Japan and the distance across the Pacific Ocean means that reinforcements may reach the arena only after China wins control of Taiwan.
“This geographic asymmetry ... combined with China’s growing capabilities and the lack of basing options for US forces in the vicinity to the Strait, call into question Washington’s ability to credibly serve as guarantor of Taiwan’s security in the future,” RAND wrote.
The Taipei Department of Health yesterday said it has launched a probe into a restaurant at Far Eastern Sogo Xinyi A13 Department Store after a customer died of suspected food poisoning. A preliminary investigation on Sunday found missing employee health status reports and unsanitary kitchen utensils at Polam Kopitiam (寶林茶室) in the department store’s basement food court, the department said. No direct relationship between the food poisoning death and the restaurant was established, as no food from the day of the incident was available for testing and no other customers had reported health complaints, it said, adding that the investigation is ongoing. Later
REVENGE TRAVEL: A surge in ticket prices should ease this year, but inflation would likely keep tickets at a higher price than before the pandemic Scoot is to offer six additional flights between Singapore and Northeast Asia, with all routes transiting Taipei from April 1, as the budget airline continues to resume operations that were paused during the COVID-19 pandemic, a Scoot official said on Thursday. Vice president of sales Lee Yong Sin (李榮新) said at a gathering with reporters in Taipei that the number of flights from Singapore to Japan and South Korea with a stop in Taiwan would increase from 15 to 21 each week. That change means the number of the Singapore-Taiwan-Tokyo flights per week would increase from seven to 12, while Singapore-Taiwan-Seoul
BAD NEIGHBORS: China took fourth place among countries spreading disinformation, with Hong Kong being used as a hub to spread propaganda, a V-Dem study found Taiwan has been rated as the country most affected by disinformation for the 11th consecutive year in a study by the global research project Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem). The nation continues to be a target of disinformation originating from China, and Hong Kong is increasingly being used as a base from which to disseminate that disinformation, the report said. After Taiwan, Latvia and Palestine ranked second and third respectively, while Nicaragua, North Korea, Venezuela and China, in that order, were the countries that spread the most disinformation, the report said. Each country listed in the report was given a score,
POOR PREPARATION: Cultures can form on food that is out of refrigeration for too long and cooking does not reliably neutralize their toxins, an epidemiologist said Medical professionals yesterday said that suspected food poisoning deaths revolving around a restaurant at Far Eastern Department Store Xinyi A13 Store in Taipei could have been caused by one of several types of bacterium. Ho Mei-shang (何美鄉), an epidemiologist at Academia Sinica’s Institute of Biomedical Sciences, wrote on Facebook that the death of a 39-year-old customer of the restaurant suggests the toxin involved was either “highly potent or present in massive large quantities.” People who ate at the restaurant showed symptoms within hours of consuming the food, suggesting that the poisoning resulted from contamination by a toxin and not infection of the