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Ma win won’t affect PLA modernization: experts

US Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis Tom Fingar said yesterday that the outcome of the presidential election in Taiwan may have lowered Beijing’s anxieties over the cross-strait situation, but would not put an end to the modernization of its military.

Susan Shirk, former deputy assistant secretary of state during the Bill Clinton administration, said China could seek to shift the world’s attention away from Tibet by dealing with Taiwan.

Beijing has already said it is willing to use “one China, two interpretations” as the basis for cross-strait dialogue. A major breakthrough on Taiwan can be expected in the next few months, she said.

Both specialists made their remarks at a forum on the new political stars of China organized by the Brookings Institution in Washington.

Asked if China could take a softer and more flexible approach to Taiwan in light of the election of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), Fingar said he did not know, but wondered whether the Chinese leadership understood how to deal with the situation and the opportunities presented.

Fingar said that a richer China was unlikely to emulate the Japanese model by outsourcing its national defense. China would continue to develop its defense capabilities — especially its force projection.

The Tibet problem is not going to disappear, Fingar said, because it is a conflict of two cultures.

The Tibet dilemma, he said, is not merely a problem of the Han Chinese versus Tibetans, but rather who would be the real beneficiary behind the opening up of the region.

The Chinese leaders treat the Tibet situation as a domestic problem. Even without the Olympic Games, the issue would have surfaced at another time, he said, adding that the problem would persist unless Beijing changes its approach in resolving the issue.

China has always prioritized domestic stability over its international image and this time was no exception, Shirk said. The approach has sharpened outsiders’ view of China’s rising nationalism and that is why, in the short term, the Chinese leaders will probably not take a moderate approach toward the Dalai Lama and Tibet.

She said that China had successfully curbed the Taiwanese independence movement in the past few years and believed Chinese people would not care much about the basis of a cross-strait dialogue.

Some US academics, however, felt that Shirk’s views on the cross-straits issue were overly optimistic and questioned whether long-term US interests might not be better served if Washington encouraged Beijing to engage in dialogue with the Dalai Lama.

Some also disagreed with her assertion that China would shift the focus on Tibet by dealing with Taiwan.
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