Post-Election 2008: Tough challenges ahead for Ma

Despite Ma Ying-jeou's (馬英九) stance on building closer ties with China, political realities could prevent breakthroughs in cross-strait relations, political analysts said yesterday.

On an invitation from the Friends of Hong Kong Macau Association, Mainland Affairs Council Vice Chairman Tung Chen-yuan (童振源) told the forum yesterday that since both sides of the Taiwan Strait have their own demands, breakthroughs in cross-strait relations such as a peace treaty or talks over international participation for Taiwan as Ma has proposed would be difficult to achieve, "unless one of the two sides is ready to make concessions."

"Ma has said Taiwan is a sovereign country, that the future of the country should be decided by its people and that independence may be one of the options for the people," Tung said. "But China insists that all negotiations be conducted under the `one China' principle."

Although Ma said there was a "1992 consensus" in which the two sides agreed that each could make its own interpretation of what "one China" means, "Beijing has never recognized the existence of the consensus and has even criticized it," Tung said.

"The core issue in cross-strait relations is not whether Taiwan should be independent or not, rather, it is the unwillingness of the People's Republic of China to recognize the reality [in the Strait]," he said.

The dean of National Chung Hsing University's Graduate Institute of International Politics Tsai Tung-chieh (蔡東杰) doubted that Taiwan would have the room to operate independently in cross-strait relations.

"I think the co-management of the Taiwan Strait by China and the US is the political reality at the moment," Tsai said. "In the past, Taiwan and the US were on the same side, but now Taiwan is in between the two powers and we don't really have a big role in cross-strait relations anymore."

At a separate forum hosted by Taiwan Thinktank yesterday, Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政), an executive member of the research center and a political science professor at Soochow University, said that Ma's cross-strait policy puts Beijing at an advantage and whether the "three direct links" with China would materialize hinges on the willingness of China.

"Taiwan does not have any bargaining chips on the negotiation table," Lo said. "China is bound to demand an exorbitant price."

However, he said Ma should make good use of the 41 percent public support for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Saturday's presidential election as a bargaining chip with Beijing.

While of Ma's election platforms was to sign a peace agreement with China, Lo said the KMT administration could use DPP opposition as leverage and demand that the signing of any peace agreement must obtain the approval of the opposition and that of the people of Taiwan in a national referendum.

Li Ming-juinn (李明峻), deputy secretary-general of the Taiwanese Society of International Law, said it would be interesting to see whether Beijing sees the KMT's triumph in the presidential election as the beginning of its long-term goal of ultimate annexation of Taiwan.

Ma a daunting task ahead of him to fulfill his campaign promises on ameliorating the cross-strait situation, as all his goals require consideration from Beijing, political observers said at another forum held yesterday in Taipei.

"Ma put himself in a very challenging position because his campaign promises require him to deliver on some of them soon after his inauguration," said Huang Chieh-cheng (黃介正), a professor at Tamkang University.

Jean-Pierre Cabestan, head of Hong Kong Baptist University's department of government and international studies, also raised a question: While Taiwan is making economic concessions to China in an effort to show its good faith in starting a dialogue, how much is China willing to relax its restriction on investment in Taiwan?

He said in many ways the KMT's "common market" could be unworkable because it requires "security symmetry" between the two sides.

London School of Economics professor Christopher Hughes said it might be too early to predict the future of the Taiwan Strait because "no one really knows what Ma is like as a leader."

"What are his real characteristics? Could be he the `Trojan Horse' as some people have called him?" Hughes said.