Legislative elections and referendums: New vote system may create shift in voting pattern

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered a major defeat in the legislative election yesterday after the single-district, two-vote system was used for the first time.

Under new electoral system, voters were invited to cast two ballots -- one for a district candidate and one for their preferred party.

Seventy-three were up for grabs among the electoral districts, six were elected by Aborigines.

In addition, 34 legislator-at-large seats were allocated to parties that received more than 5 percent of the party vote.

Aside the reform to the voting system, the total number of seats in the Legislative Yuan was cut from 225 to 113.

As at press time, 27 candidates from the DPP and 81 candidates from the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) had been elected, the Central Election Commission (CEC) said.

Sebastian Bersick, a senior research fellow on Asian affairs at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Taiwan and an electoral observer, said that based on the German experience, the new system would eventually create a shift in Taiwanese voting behavior.

"If we look at past elections, we can see that KMT candidates usually ranked No. 1 and DPP candidates ranked No. 2 in districts where multiple seats were elected ... Now, as only one candidate is elected, some of the former No. 2 DPP candidates will just be dropped."

Jim Lee, professor at National Taipei University of Education

"In Germany, voters often engage in tactical voting," Bersick said, adding that Germany also uses a similar single district, two-vote system, with a number of differences.

"[German] voters would vote for a candidate who is good for the community and who focuses on local issues," while they would vote for a party that proposes a nationwide policy agenda they like, Bersick said.

"I think that voters in Taiwan will do the same thing [as] they become more familiar with the system," he said.

Domestic said they were not surprised at the DPP's resounding defeat in the election.

"The [single-district, two-vote] system is really hurting the DPP," Jim Lee (李筱峰), a political commentator and professor at National Taipei University of Education's Graduate School of Taiwan Culture, said in a telephone interview.

"The KMT has built up a very strong local network and it's therefore easier for it to use that network and grab votes in the new districts," Lee said.

"If we look at past elections, we can see that KMT candidates usually ranked No. 1 and DPP candidates ranked No. 2 in districts where multiple seats were elected," he said.

"Now, as only one candidate is elected, some of the former No. 2 DPP candidates will just be dropped," Lee said.

Hans Stockton, an international studies professor at the University of St. Thomas in the US and another election observer, said that "the nature of the [new] system was in favor of moderate campaigning" and that the KMT's landslide victory "just shows that the pan-blue camp seems to be doing a better job on it."

However, Stockton said it was still too early to tell what the political consequences of the new system would be.

"In the past, there was plurality in each district -- there was a blue [legislator] and there was a green one," he said. "Now it's either a KMT or a DPP district."

While parties had hoped that voters disappointed at the DPP and the KMT would turn to them for support, Lu Li (路犁), founder of a popular Internet political forum Socialforce.tw, and a long-time observer of Taiwanese politics, disagreed.

He said that the smaller parties do not stand a chance in the party vote because the DPP-KMT party line division will remain in place for the foreseeable future.

"Although a lot of voters are disappointed at the two major parties, few of them would turn to third parties," Lu said. "Because most of the disappointed voters will simply just not vote."

Official announced by the CEC showed that, other than the DPP and the KMT, no other parties were able to secure more than 5 percent of the party vote.