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Analysis: Allies' WHO behavior tough to interpret

It might be too strong to interpret the cold shoulder Taiwan received from its allies during the voting in its bid for full WHO membership as a sign of deteriorating diplomatic relations, but it could become a real crisis if diplomats try to play down the result as just another instance of China's interference in Taiwan's struggle for international recognition, political analysts said.

This year, for the first time, Taiwan applied for full WHO membership using the name "Taiwan" at the World Health Assembly (WHA), the WHO's highest decision-making body.

Unsurprisingly, Taiwan was once again rejected. But to many people's surprise, several of Taiwan's allies did not support Taiwan when the WHA's General Assembly voted on whether to put Taiwan's application onto the agenda.

In addition to the Vatican, which is not a WHO member, seven of Taiwan's remaining 24 allies did not give their support to Taiwan's motion. Panama, Nicaragua, the Marshall Islands and St. Lucia were all absent from the vote while Haiti waived its voting right. The Dominican Republic forfeited its voting rights by not paying its membership fee. Costa Rica voted against Taiwan.

Several pan-blue legislators castigated the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for "making bad friends" and for being oblivious to its allies' ambiguous attitude toward the WHA vote. People First Party caucus whip Chao Liang-yen (趙良燕) said that it was ridiculous for Costa Rica to claim it had slipped up when casting its ballot and he requested the ministry reconsider whether it was worth keeping diplomatic ties with Costa Rica since Taiwan spent so much money on them each year.

It has also been rumored that some of Taiwan's allies in Central America are planning to cut relations with Taiwan.

And although Foreign Minister James Huang (黃志芳), who yesterday flew to Belize to convene an international conference between Taiwan and its Central American allies, said on Sunday that there was little danger of a "domino effect" of Central American allies deserting Taiwan for China, he said he would take advantage of this opportunity to understand the circumstances of each of the nation's allies and discuss with their ambassadors about how to steady diplomatic relations with each country.

But the ministry admitted that the foreign ministers of Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua would be absent from the meetings with Huang.

Lo Chi-cheng (羅致政), a political science professor at Soochow University, said that the voting behavior of the nation's allies at this kind of international conference should be seen as an indicator of their loyalty to Taiwan, but it is still not the fundamental problem in the nation's diplomatic predicament.

"It is likely that some of these nations would use such events to negotiate with Taiwan for things they want," Lo said. "But some of these allies are experiencing a change of regime and need to face their voters domestically."

Lo said that ministry officials need to conduct a review to see what went wrong during communications with its allies and find out why they voted as they did.

Secretary-general of the EU Study Association Wu Chih-chung (吳志中) said that it was an over-reaction for legislators to warn that allies would sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan whenever the nation was frustrated at such international occasions.

But political analyst Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明) reminded ministry officials who have become accustomed to China's repression at these international events that while it was unnecessary to over-interpret some of the events, underestimating them could lead to a real crisis.
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