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Analysis: Host of factors contributed to Hsieh's surprise victory

Key facts about Frank Hsieh * Hsieh favors a more moderate approach toward China. He has called for gradual opening of more economic links. * Hsieh stepped down as Kaohsiung mayor and became premier from February 2005 to January last year, when he became the fourth premier to resign since Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) administration began in 2000. * He was mayor of Kaohsiung from 1998 to 2005. * In December last year, he lost the mayoral election in Taipei to Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). * Born in 1946, he obtained law degrees from Taiwan National University and philosophy degrees from Kyoto University. Sources: Taiwan government, Democratic Progressive Party, Reuters

When Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) announced his withdrawal from the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential primary shortly after his defeat in Sunday's primary vote, there was an exclamation of surprise in the party's press room.

Su's decision came as a surprise because several public opinion polls released prior to the vote had suggested that Su had the advantage over his closest rival, former premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷).

In addition to Su's campaign having been endorsed by the Taiwan Society's secretary-general Chet Yang (楊文嘉) and its vice president Tseng Kei-hai (曾貴海), local media insiders had long speculated that, despite his denials, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) had a preference for Su over the other three contenders: Hsieh, Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) and DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun.

At a press conference held one week before Sunday's primary vote, Yu mentioned that party officials were under strong pressure "from above to support specific presidential hopefuls."

The result of Sunday's vote, however, was unexpected. Hsieh led the vote in 17 out of 24 cities and counties and won 44.66 percent of the total party member votes, while Su managed only 33.4 percent.

Even in Taipei County, considered a Su stronghold because the premier is a former Taipei County commissioner, Su garnered just 127 more votes than Hsieh.

The four DPP presidential aspirants yesterday agreed to skip the second stage of the primary -- a public opinion poll -- and allow Hsieh to represent the DPP in the presidential election.

What factors contributed to this unexpected outcome?

Ku Chung-hwa (顧忠華), a political analyst and sociology professor at National Chengchi University, said that Hsieh's victory had a lot to do with the president's attitude in the primary.

Although Chen in a televised interview last Friday had tried to clarify that he did not favor any specific contender over the others, "his speech might have upset many people because he did not explain everything clearly," Ku said.

"On the contrary, Chen's interview might have conveyed the message that he was trying to interfere in the primary," Ku said.

Ku said that Su's double role as the premier might also have contributed to his loss in Sunday's vote.

"Su should have been able to integrate many administrative resources as the premier, but running in the primary while being the premier instead proved disadvantageous to him," Ku said.

In terms of controversial issues such as the proposed demolition of the nation's only home for lepers, the Losheng ("Happy Life") Sanatorium in Taipei County, or the establishment of a freeway connecting Ilan County's Suao (蘇澳) and Hualien, "Su failed to make forthright decisions," Ku said.

The furor over a prosecutorial document that was leaked to the Chinese-language Next Magazine last week also ended up working in Hsieh's favor.

On Wednesday, the magazine published a copy of what it said was an official document sent from the Kaohsiung bureau of the Taiwan High Court Prosecutors' Office to the Investigation Bureau on April 3.

The magazine said Kaohsiung Prosecutor Lo Chien-hsun (羅建勛) believed Hsieh should be indicted on corruption charges on suspicion of accepting illegal donations from a Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corp (KRTC) board member and others during his term as mayor of Kaohsiung.

"Su threw a `wild pitch' over the last two weeks ahead of the primary vote," said Shih Cheng-feng (施正鋒), a professor of public administration at Tamkang University, referring to Su's attack on Hsieh over the donations issue, reminding supporters of similar discrediting tactics that have been employed by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).

The attack may have helped Hsieh win some sympathy votes, Shih said.

"Hsieh also successfully made use of the party's recent grudge against its former New Tide faction and transformed the competition between him and Su into one between those supporting the faction and those opposed to it," Shih said, referring to Su's close relationship with the New Tide.

Although it has been disbanded, the faction left a less than favorable impression among deep-green supporters with its outspokenness and criticism against the party and the president last year when Chen was caught in a controversy over the use of his "state affairs" fund.

Chen Fang-ming (陳芳明), chairman of the Graduate Institute of Taiwanese Literature at National Chengchi University, said the primary vote suggested a shift of power toward those opposed to Chen Shui-bian had taken place within the party.

"In the past, the DPP upheld the will of Chen Shui-bian ... but party members have already been able to develop independent voices," he said.

Chen Fang-ming said that Hsieh's promotion of "reconciliation and coexistence" offered a more pragmatic perspective on the country's political situation.

"The deep-greens only account for a minority among the DPP's supporters," he added.

Chen Fang-ming said that Hsieh's "reconciliation and coexistence" approach may have found "a way out of the gridlock in which the party has been trapped for the past eight years."
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