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Analysis: Yu, Lu's supporters may challenge format for poll

Conflict among the four presidential hopefuls of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) appeared to have been avoided after they agreed on the format of opinion polls to choose the party's candidate. However, the uncertainty has re-emerged as their respective supporters await an opportunity to challenge that format at the party's National Assembly.

The DPP's Central Executive Committee (CEC) on Wednesday approved the design of the public survey for the party's primary, which consists of a vote by party members and opinion polls.

The proposal, initiated by the Presidential Office, will be referred to the party's Central Standing Committee for verification on Wednesday.

There is a chance that the proposal will be overturned, however, as Huang Ching-lin (黃慶林), a committee member who opposed the proposal, questioned the legitimacy of the CEC's handling of the proposal and has found backing sufficient to request a National Assembly, the date of which will be decided by members of the Central Standing Committee on Wednesday.

The proposal is designed to exclude voters who historically do not vote for the DPP in presidential elections -- estimated at about 30 percent of voters -- while surveying only pan-green and swing voters.

The proposal won the backing of Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and former premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), while Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) and DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun were kept in the dark about it.

Lu and Yu's supporters believe that the poll's design favors Su and Hsieh.

Lu and Yu were among the members of the Central Executive Committee who had refused to endorse the proposal last Wednesday.

Opponents of the proposal stand a chance of turning the tide if the Central Standing Committee gives the assembly the go-ahead on Wednesday.

Chao Yung-mau (趙永茂), a political science professor at National Taiwan University, yesterday frowned on the DPP's handling of the matter, saying the party risked sabotaging its own reputation by changing the rules of the game.

"While the DPP has been in power for seven years, it's a shame that it hasn't worked out a system that would materialize its plan of continuing its political power," he said.

"They wait until the last minute to jockey around and make it up as they go along," Chao said.

The DPP's hopefuls were at first ambivalent about a public selection process, prompting intervention by the Presidential Office.

Chao was critical of such top-to-bottom decision-making, saying that although it was understandable that the party wanted to win elections, it was unwise to undermine its credibility when there was already an established selection system in place.

The DPP's regulations clearly state that candidates for all public positions, including those of president and vice president, are to be selected by a vote of party members and a public opinion poll.

While the party member vote counts for 30 percent of a candidate's "total score," the opinion poll contributes the remaining 70 percent.

"The selection system must be fair and transparent," Chao said, "or else candidates excluded by the system are bound to cry foul if they feel they are cheated."

If the DPP aspired to change the rules, it would be better to hire professionals to make the decision instead of letting the people who were running in the campaign -- or the Presidential Office -- dictate the terms, he said.

Describing the intervention of the Presidential Office as "unnecessary," Chao said it was the result of President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) apprehension about the prospects of a DPP election victory.

"He may mean well in terms of helping the party to win the election, but I'm afraid what he does is more of a hindrance than a help," Chao said.

Wu Chung-li (吳重禮), a political researcher at Academia Sinica, said that the opinions of all aspirants must be taken into account during the negotiation process and the rules must be finalized before the campaign kicks off.

The power of the candidate selected is bound to be compromised if the system is corrupt, he said.

Although institutionalizing a primary system is good, Wu said that a political party may look at the issue from a very different and more practical perspective, including whether the party can pick the candidate with the best chance of winning and how to minimize infighting among the aspirants.

Taiwan's political parities are not mature enough to hold direct primaries like US counterparts, he said, but are more democratic than their European counterparts in terms of mediation.

While Lu and Yu have misgivings about the polls, Wu said he suspected that the DPP would hold a primary to select the candidate.

Resolving the bad feelings created during the process, though, will be a test of DPP leadership, he said.
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