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Elections 2006: Chen Chu draws on charisma, Hsieh's legacy for victory

Personal charisma and a clean image contributed to the victory of Chen Chu (陳菊), the Demo-cratic Progressive Party's (DPP) mayoral candidate for Kaohsiung, analysts said.

Resources employed by the DPP-governed Kaohsiung City Government and central government also played a pivotal role in her success, said political critic Liao Da-chi (廖達琪) of National Chungshan University.

Chen's triumph drew on Kaohsiung residents' recognition of the performance of former premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), who governed the southern city from 1998 to last year.

The DPP and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) are well-matched in their strength in the city. Hsieh won his re-election bid in the 2002 Kaohsiung mayoral election by garnering 50 percent of the votes, beating KMT's Huang Chun-ying (黃俊英), who attracted nearly 47 percent of the ballots.

In the 1998 election, Hsieh won with nearly 49 percent of the ballots, narrowly beating the KMT incumbent Wu Den-yih (吳敦義).

Chen yesterday garnered 49.41 percent of the votes, narrowly beating Huang's 49.27 percent.

In addition to Chen Chu's charisma and Hsieh's sound governance record, an analyst attributed the DPP's success in Kaohsiung to a high turnout rate and the endorsement of pro-independence heavyweights such as former DPP chairman Lin I-hsiung (林義雄) and the president.

Yesterday's turnout rate in Kaohsiung was about 68 percent.

Meanwhile, a high voter turnout worked against the DPP in Taipei, traditionally a pan-blue stronghold, analysts said.

When Chen Shui-bian won the 1994 Taipei mayoral election, he garnered 43 percent of the vote. Chen won the poll because of a split in the pan-blue alliance.

Chen Shui-bian had a better showing in his re-election bid in 1998 -- amassing nearly 46 percent of the ballots -- but he still lost to the KMT's challenger, Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), who collected more than 51 percent of the votes.

In Taipei, Frank Hsieh yesterday picked up 41 percent of the votes, 13 percentage points less than his KMT counterpart Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌).

Hsieh's unsuccessful "dump-save" strategy contributed to his defeat, Liao said.

Realizing that Hau was a formidable contender, Hsieh thought he could win if voters would dump Hau and vote for People First Party Chairman and independent candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜).

However, Soong won only 4 percent of the vote.

Hsieh's failed attempt showed that Taipei residents are politically moderate, Liao said.

Still, Hsieh's failure does not mean the end of his political career, Liao said.

Hsieh's strong showing gained him some political points.

"To some extent, the DPP considers him a hero -- someone who dared to draw a line between himself and President Chen, who is embroiled in corruption scandals," Liao said.

However, there are many hurdles for Hsieh to cross on the way to presidency if he decides to run.

Besides the electorate structure, an analyst attributed Hsieh's defeat to public discontent over the Chen administration's poor governance and corruption scandals implicating the president and his aides.

The DPP's win in Kaohsiung and defeat in Taipei may benefit President Chen more than it does the DPP, analysts said.

"The voices of dissent within the party are expected to be further suppressed and the call for self-reflection quieted," Liao said.

Chen Chu's triumph signifies the victory of the DPP's former New Tide faction, of which Chen Chu was a member.

While the faction was a vocal critic of the president's cross-strait policies, former members are likely to exercise restraint in a bid to repay President Chen's support for Chen Chu.
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