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Elections 2006: KMT, DPP equally positive about candidates' chances

With campaigning in Taipei and Kaohsiung coming to an end, both the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) each expressed confidence in their respective mayoral candidates.

The KMT yesterday predicted that the hotly contested mayoral races in both metropolises would result in victory. The party called on pan-blue supporters to vote for its Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Huang Chun-ying (黃俊英) and demonstrate their support for its Taipei mayoral candidate Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌).

The DPP was similarly confident that it had a good chance of winning both mayoral elections. The DPP expressed confidence that a high voter turnout would be sufficient to help secure a victory in Kaohsiung, and that public anger at People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), who is running in the Taipei mayoral race as an independent, would motivate pan-green supporters to show up in support of the DPP.

"For the KMT, the last phase of the election campaign should focus on combating vote-buying and dirty campaigning, campaigning for more votes and consolidating existing voter support" said Liao Fung-te (廖風德), director of the KMT's Organization and Development Committee.

DPP Deputy Secretary-General Tsai Huang-liang (蔡煌瑯) said that his party and other pollsters all believed that DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) would be able to garner about 38 to 43 percent of the vote, which would give him a good chance of getting elected.

Support in Kaohsiung is almost evenly divided between DPP candidate Chen Ju (陳菊) and KMT candidate Huang Chun-ying, and a high voter turnout among DPP supporters could be what is needed to secure victory there, Tsai added.

Analysts said that the revelation of a private meeting between KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and Soong, together with the hand-in-hand promotional event held along Kaohsiung's Ai River last Sunday, had led to a change in the situation in Kaohsiung.

The KMT predicted a voter turnout of about 65 percent to 70 percent, adding that a turnout of more than 70 percent would be unfavorable to Huang.

"If Soong is elected in Taipei, it will translate into a reunion between the KMT and PFP, which is not what the DPP expects to deal with," Tsai said. "If Soong comes out badly, then the split between the two parties could widen further."

Political analysts said yesterday that today's electoral outcomes would directly affect the 2008 presidential election and that the KMT and DPP would both face the problems of power reshuffling whether they win or lose.

"Even if Hau wins, Ma faces another thorny problem, which is how to appease Soong, who claims he possesses the KMT's scandal secrets," said Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明), an assistant research fellow in political science at Academia Sinica, at a forum hosted by the Friends of Hong Kong and Macau Association.

"Likewise, if the DPP loses Kaohsiung, its presidential candidate [for 2008] will be forced to be announced in advance," he said, adding that supporters of the pan-blue camp would have much stronger voting motivation than that of pan-green supporters since they shared a common motive -- their distaste for President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and desire to win back ruling power.

Chu Chao-hsiang (曲兆祥), professor of political studies at Taiwan National Normal University, said that political performances would not be the deciding issue for voters.

Voters generally stick to their party preferences, he said.
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